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In message <57a9gp$8hg_001@ind-0001-4.iquest.net> - vanfrank@iquest.net (Richard Van Frank)Sun, 24 Nov 1996 20:31:31 GMT writes: ] ]In article <5701im$pcp@news.chatlink.com>, ] soltherm@chatlink.com (renewable ) wrote: ]>I have the feeling that tough Ultra Violet Purifiers, ]>eliminate most dangerous disease causing agents, ]>onl boiling water (pasteurization) is 100% effective. ]> ]>Does anyone have an opinion? ]> ]>dsg ]> ]The lenght of time the water is boiled is critical as is the exposure conditions ]for UV. ]RMVF UV is pretty good if you are NOT dealing with cysts\spores or water high in suspended solids.....ie) cleanish water with live organisms. Filtering the water with fine filter would help on both counts. Even boiling water would not garantee conplete disinfection when dealing with spores\cysts. regards tom c.Return to Top
ddeming@geophysics.scif.uoknor.edu (D. Deming) writes: > In articleReturn to Top, Steinn Sigurdsson > wrote: > > 0.6 C over a century appears to be a 2 sigma excursion, > > or possibly little greater than that. > How do you know? Literally? I spent a day in stuffy room listening to a series of presentation on paleoclimate, historical climates (and analysis of systematic error in the record), time series analysis, modeling and current global data; during the course of which, a long term coarse-grained mean, a 100+ year noisy time series and the current state were presented and compared with coarse-grained model averages with and without various forcing terms. I haven't looked up English naval records myself, I haven't looked through Hadley's GCM code (although I suspect I've seen more than a few of the kernels and all of the equations), and I didn't take the time series and calculate the statistics myself, although I could were I so inclined; however what people told me was believable, apparently correct and consistent with normal practise in the physical sciences, and the numbers were an apparent match with the eyeballed raw time series. Oh, and before and after I read a couple of dozen articles and reviews on the same issue in refereed journals and in conference proceedings. So, given previous caveats, I am as confident in the above statement as I am about any statistical statement about a non-lab physical system.
The Followups on this should be truncated, darned if I know to what subset... sync@inforamp.net (J McGinnis) writes: > It is a fact that the developed nations are on land naturally, (ie - > regardless of technology), suited to agriculture. This is no > coincidence obviously, it is part of what allowed these countries to > become successful in the first place. Are you honestly going to claim that any part of, say, Sweden (which is "developed" by most definitions) is better suited to agriculture than, say, the yellow river delta?!Return to Top
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ + CALLING ALL UK ENVIRONMENTAL CONSULTANTS + +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ With four editions since 1988, the ENDS Environmental Consultants Directory is now recognised as the definitive source of information on UK environmental consultancies. New for 1997, we are publishing the Directory on the Web and on CD-ROM, as well as the traditional paper version. So if you want to be in the next edition, just fax ENDS on 0171 415 0106 or e-mail PMowatt@ends.co.uk for a brochure and questionnaire. Please state your company name and postal address. Closing date: 20th January 1997. Environmental Data Services Ltd Finsbury Business Centre 40 Bowling Green Lane London EC1R 0NE Tel: +44 (0)171 278 4745 Fax: +44 (0)171 415 0106 Environmental intelligence for professionals - www.ends.co.ukReturn to Top
In article 251196091016@129.15.42.22, ddeming@geophysics.scif.uoknor.edu (D. Deming) writes: >Your critcism (and others) seem to be that the 1990 IPCC graph >is uncertain. I think we all understand that. The question >is, do you have an objectively better estimate? Apart from uncertainty in the graph (which means you certainly shouldn't use it for comparing small differences over long periods) your reading of it is wrong. You asserted that T(now) is lower than in most of the last 10kyr. That isn't true, even using the graph - you've forgotten to add on the warming (.3 to .6 oC) that occurred between the beginning of this century and now. If you do that, T(now) is higher than the temperature over most of the last 10ky or the last 1ky. - William --- William M Connolley | wmc@bas.ac.uk | http://www.nbs.ac.uk/public/icd/wmc/ Climate Modeller, British Antarctic Survey | Disclaimer: I speak for myselfReturn to Top
The People May 27, 1995 Vol. 105 No. 4 SOCIALISM: TRUE EMBODIMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT By B.B. It may not be the first thing on its agenda, but somewhere high at the top of the list of the first congress of the socialist industrial union government of North America will be placed sweeping measures to reverse centuries of plunder and destruction of the earth's resources and the attendant environmental degradation. Millions of workers who remained unemployed, underemployed or engaged in totally useless nonproductive occupations will suddenly find themselves absorbed in the tasks of rebuilding their world, one shattered by the abuses of class rule and open-ended profiteering. Their ardent efforts, freed from any restrictions imposed by private-ownership interests and operating only for the good of humankind and the world, will be in sharp contrast to the feeble and timid actions of the "environmentalists" of the capitalist system who are perennially preoccupied with garnering political influence among politicians and trying to raise the monetary funds to carry on their work. Current environmentalists, limited in their world view and understanding of the capitalist system, imbued with notions of the "evil men" theory of history, are prone to divorce their specific environmental cause from the whole socio-economic fabric. These environmental warriors of capitalist society endlessly flounder, winning, at best, only a delaying action against the disintegrating effects of capitalism on the natural world. However, there is one important legacy they are leaving behind for the future. It is data, mountains and mountains of exposes, reports and documentation, that amount to indictments of capitalism as the culprit for the destruction of the environment. University libraries are bulging, research establishments are filled, publishers are glutted and periodicals are saturated with data: data about endangered creatures large and small, from sea lions to snail darters, wolves and coyotes to Bengal tigers, pandas, eagles, condors, spotted owls, whooping cranes, salmon and sea horses, along with all the vegetation of their native habitats. Hardly anything seems to have escaped the scrutiny of those scientists and researchers who weigh in with pounds, kilos and tons of reports and findings that Mother Nature is in deep trouble. The capitalist system finds all of this tolerable as long as no explicit condemnations of its operations are forthcoming. Indeed, reports and data accumulation are welcome and even encouraged by various foundations, and one can make a comfortable living because of the earth's dying. It's as though uncovering an environmental problem is equal to doing something about it; a lot cheaper, too! Two recent examples of such documentation, blaming individuals without indicting the system, appeared recently. One, an article in The New York Times of April 7, entitled "El Dorado, Lost Again?" by Leah Martins and Patrick Tierney; the other, "The Puzzle of Declining Amphibian Populations," by Andrew R. Blaustein and David B. Wake, in the April edition of Scientific American. The former informs us that Venezuela and Brazil are selling off vast areas of rain forest to gold-prospecting companies in the Guiana Highlands separating the Amazon and Orinoco watersheds. Gold deposits estimated at $90 billion, "perhaps 10 percent of the planet's resources," are there. European, Japanese and South African gold capitalists are destroying "one of the planet's richest rain forests" and the habitat of the last unassimilated tribal peoples, the Pemon Indians. Yellow-Jack Resources, a Canadian outfit, has evicted native peoples from their hunting and fishing domains while the lecherous Robert Friedland, owner of the notorious Summitville gold mine in Colorado, has descended upon the Guiana Highlands (with $50 million he obtained from the Vancouver Stock Exchange) for a repeat performance of the polluted mess he left behind in Colorado, where the clean-up costs were estimated by the EPA at $100 million. Incredibly, this villain acquired a vice presidency in the Minas Guarich strip-mining company partially owned by, of all people, explorer-naturalist Charles Brewer-Carias, a renowned research associate of the University of California and the New York Botanical Gardens! Brewer-Carias, while posturing as an environmentalist and savior of the Nanomami Indians, saw nothing contradictory in operating open-pit mines on over 12,000 acres in the environmentally protected headwaters of the Cuyumi River! Not to be outdone by Friedland, he employed unsalaried Maguiritare Indians for mining while "he destroys not only nature but also the men who work for him," according to Gergio Milano, an anthropologist and retired police official. The "innovative" Mr. Brewer also ferried University of California anthropologists to the last uncontacted cluster of aboriginal villages in the Amazon without quarantine precautions on a gold-extracting junket, according to three Venezuelan Air Force colonels. The report goes on to urge the Brazilian and Venezuelan governments to prevent strip-mining and encourage environmentally safer measures. Fat chance! Capitalists always take the most "cost-effective" route to extract minerals and wealth from the earth. The conditions of capitalist competition force them to do so--a realization too distant for the authors of the Times report to grasp. In the other article, from Scientific American, the authors report that the declining populations of frogs, toads and salamanders worldwide to be partially due to their high exposures to ultraviolet radiation as a result of ozone depletion in the atmosphere. These research scientists documented "massive die-off of fertilized eggs" in Cascade Mountain frogs in Oregon, and in the western toads. Their experiments on fertilized eggs hatched in controlled laboratory conditions using the same lake water that they breed in produced healthy specimens. They proved that extensive environmental destruction, acid rain and snow, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides and industrial chemicals--in other words, capitalism's infernal brew--were all contributing to dramatic declines in amphibian populations. None, they emphasized, have been more damaging than "habitat degradation and destruction [which] clearly remain the most powerful causes of amphibian disappearance around the world." These scientists have drawn innocuous conclusions, without the essential inference that environmental degradation is inherent in capitalist development. Such an inference would, of course, have led to only one conclusion: that meaningful action to repair our world can only be taken when the competitive pressures of capitalism, indeed the capitalist system itself, is abolished and socialism established. Upon the basis of the evidence accumulated by today's environmentalists, a socialist industrial union government will take swift, positive and massive efforts to restore the environment. The first step toward doing so, of course, will be to change the basic purpose of social production, from production for profit to production for use--inherently conservationist in its orientation. We can expect the workers of every industry to evaluate the repercussions of the productive processes they are engaged in. Biologists, botanists and scientists throughout society will be part of this reassessment, in which the measure of production will be humanity and all living things, and the future generations of all living things. In this sense, the possibility for a true environmental movement lies within the program of the Socialist Labor Party, for only that program can turn the accumulated mass of environmental documentation into effective action to restore the world. -- "Knowledge is proud that he has learned so much; wisdom is humble that he knows no more." redflag@dcfreenet.seflin.lib.fl.usReturn to Top
Greetings All, The year 2000 matters very little in the lifetimes of mankind. What matters most is how we colectively and individualy use our time. The truth is not "out there." In fact, its "In Here" and exits now! Marcus S. Robinson, DCH Voyager...On the Path of Transformation E-Journal http://www.vivanet.com/~marcus/voyager.htm author of One Song Hero: The Inward Journey of an Urban Shaman" http://www.vivanet.com/~marcus/osh1.htm In <57fbib$1us@newsstand.cit.cornell.edu> sg19@cornell.edu (Silvana Grandillo) writes: > >Actually, according to some scholars we ARE already in the year 2,000 > >It is believed, infact, the Christ was born some 4 years before the time >that it is commonly known. >So, 1996 would turn into 2,000. >So, we ARE into the new millenium (according to some who studied the >matter). >Does it still matter ? > >S. > >In article <57f76n$80s_002@leeds.ac.uk>, CDS4AW@leeds.ac.uk says... >> >>In article <56vkke$qp6@news.one.net>, >>api@axiom.access.one.net (Adam Ierymenko) wrote: >> >>>Actually, the milennium does matter. I don't think it has >>any supernatural >>>significance, but it will feel different. Something about >>a number with three >>>zeroes after it. A new *thousand years*. >>> >>>It will feel like, well, the future. >> >>But I think a lot of people might just wake up one day in >>March or April 2000 and think, hey, what the hell has >>changed? because people are kind of seeing it as some "new >>dawn".... then when they realise nothing has changed, >>there'll be a lot of pretty pissed off people out there. >> >>+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >>"The most perceptive work on British Politics in the >>last 150 years may turn out to be 'Alice in Wonderland'" >>(Neil Middleton, 1993, "Tears of the Crocodile") >> >>cds4aw@lucs-01.novell.leeds.ac.uk >>Any unsolicited e-mail will not even be read, >>so don't bother. >>+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >Return to Top
charliew@hal-pc.org (charliew) wrote: >In article <578gg5$tl5@News2.Lakes.com>, > gdy52150@prairie.lakes.com (gdy52150@prairie.lakes.com) >wrote: >>charliew@hal-pc.org (charliew) wrote: >>well there's examples worldwide where technology has lead >to enviro >>problems and the correction has only made the situation >worst >> >There are also examples worldwide where technology has >increased peoples' lifespans, cured illnesses, reduced their >amount of manual labor, transported them long distances in and just what does any of those things have to due with the environment.Like all dits you have to throw up some silly strawman to present an arguement because you lack any data or facts to back the indefensable >short amounts of time, enabled them to communicate globally >for *very* little expense, etc., etc. I don't read where >you complain about the benefits of high technology. I >suppose that you think that there are some things in this >world that only have benefits to them, and no drawbacks? >Perhaps you think the environmental movement fits into this >category? the environmental movement has no drawbacks.Unless you favor short time gain for the rich elitist over long term loss for everyone.Return to Top
R. Bailey (bailer@rpi.edu) wrote: >eggsoft@sydney.DIALix.oz.au (Greig Ebeling) wrote: >>My viewpoint on this matter comes from extensive investigation. I >>find nowhere any conclusions to scientific studies which discount >>the idea that ozone depletion is a natural phenomenon, and I find >>plenty of reasons to suggest that it has little or no importance >>consequences as a biological hazard. >WHAT INVESTIGATIONS? The same papers, journals and web sites which denizens of this ng insist refute my claims. >Do you have experimental data that refute the>commonly held views? I don't think I have made myself clear. The available experimental data has led me to my conclusions: 1. That polar stratospheric ozone depletion is a natural process. The data available suggests that the conditions and chemical ingredients have been there all along. I find no data or conclusions which refute this. Perhaps you would like to suggest some evidence which concludes otherwise? 2. That there is no significant biological hazard arising from ozone depletion. The evidence for this is straight forward. Ozone depletion at the poles results in insignificant UV increase, because the sun is so low on the horizon. Also the increases in UV at mid-latitudes is very low compared to daily, seasonal and global variations. I have not seen one single experiment yielding data which suggests that ozone depletion results in bio harm. If there is any such data, then please post the reference. >Can you show explicitly where the chemistry or the >numbers are wrong? The chemistry and the numbers I have seen so far are IMO correct, and I do not dispute them. It is the conclusion that CFCs should be banned which I refute. This conclusion is not based on the data I have seen. It is a political decision only, and does not, nor will it ever, have any significant impact (positive or negative) on the preservation of the environment. >Wishing doesn't make it so. Neither does spending a lot of money on non-existent environmental problems. ...GreigReturn to Top
Franz Gerl (gerl@Theorie.Physik.UNI-Goettingen.DE) wrote: >So your memory is as week as your arguments. Actually I have a record of my previous posts. >Some of your calculations would have been intersting >15 years ago, when research into the ozone hole began. Please show me any recent research which invalidates my calcs. Please Franz, I'm really interested in finding out about the research which has had such a strong influence on your belief system, that it is immovable. >I left it to the experts in sci.environment to show >that research has closed the matter, and that your >arguments are not valid. I have not yet had an 'expert in sci.environment' show me anything I don't already know or that my arguments are invalid. So please, Franz, since you're so keen to criticise, take up the baton. >I mostly had fun with your attempts at economic >calculations, trying to justify the ridiculous >2 trillion dollar figure, which exposed you >as the ideologue to anybody who can grasp these numbers. Hmm, whose memory is weak? The 2 trillion figure was a quote from a valid reference (I've yet to see you produce one). And I never tried to justify the figure, because it is not mine. Now Franz, why don't you debate the subject, rather than waste our time with pointless abuse? ...GreigReturn to Top
Joshua B. Halpern (jbh@ILP.Physik.Uni-Essen.DE) wrote: >Greig Ebeling (eggsoft@sydney.DIALix.oz.au) wrote: >: I happen to think Ralph Cicerone and Sherwood Rowlands are good >: referees. But if you insist, I have references to back up >: everything I claim, which I excluded for brevity. >: > >greig darling, if your quotes were accurate, they were blowing >you off. go smell the roses. Actually Josh, both gentlemen were very polite, and agreed with almost everything I suggested. The only contention was over the issue of ozone depletion being a natural phenomenon. Rowlands suggested that it was a logical conclusion (since all the ingredients were present), but that some anecdotal evidence (early data by Dobson) suggested to the contrary. Cicerone avoided the question. ...GreigReturn to Top
Paul F. Dietz (dietz@interaccess.com) wrote: >I can only conclude, then, that you are either stupid or dishonest. Please please, let's be civil. >The evidence as presented in the literature is strong, that: > > (1) Photochemical reactions in the stratosphere involving > chlorine (and perhaps bromine) are the proximate cause > of the Antarctic ozone hole, and And I agree with this. > (2) The chlorine is overwhelmingly anthropogenic. I disagree with this. A lot of it is anthropogenic, but quite a lot existed prior to CFCs, arising from the photolysis of methyl chloride. >There is no credible theory in the literature holding that the >Antarctic ozone hole is a natural phenomenon Yes, but the accepted theory implies that it is (at least partially). >(although the natural >environment there, particularly formation of ice particles, does >affect the reactions.) Affect??? If you mean by ice crystals, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) then you have underestimated their role. Stratospheric ozone depletion does not occur in their absence, which is why the ozone hole is over the Antarctic! My point is, all the ingredients for ozone depletion existed long before CFCs, so it must be a natural phenomenon. >Perhaps you could cite this supposed contrary opinion? >Please stick to refereed geophysics and atmospheric chemistry >journals, not trade rags like "Machine Design" or Lyndon Larouche >publications. I have posted a complete description of my reasoning (complete with references) in this newsgroup. If you miss it let me know and I will email it. ...GreigReturn to Top
Sam McClintock (scmcclintock@ipass.net) wrote: >Greig EbelingReturn to Topwrote: >> I happen to think Ralph Cicerone and Sherwood Rowlands are good >> referees. But if you insist, I have references to back up >> everything I claim, which I excluded for brevity. >> >> Which part of my post do you think requires clarification? > >Nothing you posting needs clarification because there was >nothing of substance. A matter of opinion (and a comment lacking substance). >If you wish to post something of >substance, again please let us know. All you have to do >is post one reference of actual research (within the last >decade to keep it simple), and we can discuss/debate >all you want. I had thought that my original post was quite logical and that a discussion could proceed without it becoming convoluted, but since you throw down the gauntlet, here is my response. I look forward to your (adequately referenced) response. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Ozone depletion is a natural phenomenon. The chemistry involved in polar stratospheric ozone depletion has been well researched and is described in a number of excellent publications. The following description of the ozone depletion chemistry is derived from Parson's Ozone FAQ at http://www.cis.ohio-state.edu /hypertext/faq/usenet/ozone-depletion/antarctic/faq-doc-12.html. Briefly, ozone depletion results from the reaction of inorganic chlorine compounds (HCl, ClONO2) on the surface of polar stratospheric clouds PSCs. The inorganic Cl compounds arise from the photolysis of organic compounds which rise to the stratosphere by eddy diffusion. These organochlorides include methyl chloride (natural) and CFCs. PSCs are crystals of nitrogen compounds (eg nitric acid) and water. They occur at -80 deg C. PSCs do not occur at greater than this temperature. During winter, inorganic Cl compounds HCl and ClONO2 react with the PSCs to form large amounts of ClO. When the sun returns in spring, the ClO reacts rapidly as follows: ClO + ClO -> ClOOCl ClOOCl + hv -> Cl + ClOO ClOO -> Cl + O2 2 Cl + 2 O3 -> 2 ClO + 2 O2 ^^^^ In recent times ozone Antarctic ozone depletion has been measured to increase each year. This correlates with the increased abundance of inorganic Cl due to the increase of man-made CFCs. However there are a number of anomalies which cast doubt on the idea that this is the sole cause of the so-callesd ozone hole. (1) Ozone depletion also correlates very strongly with PSC concentration. For example consider the correlation between observed temperature rise, and decrease in observed ozone depletion in 1988. [Shanklin]. In that case, reduced PSCs due to relatively high temperatures resulted in a dramatic decline in ozone depletion rates. Since inorganic Cl compounds and PSCs occur naturally, and 1993 UARS measurements and studies of Arctic ozone depletion [Waters et al] [Gleason et al] show that PSCs are critical in the reaction, the entire observation of Antarctic ozone depletion can be logically expained by natural mechanisms involving cyclical stratospheric temperature variations. (2) There has always been a relatively large burden of inorganic Cl present. Since direct measurement of the gaseous composition of the stratosphere has been occurring only for the last 20 or so years, proof by direct measurement of the natural state is not possible, and all discussion on this subject is of course speculative. However HCl was first measured in 1976 [Farmer et al.] [Eyre and Roscoe]. It is now well known that in the stratosphere the HCl mixing ratio increases with altitude, rapidly up to about 35 km, and then more slowly up to 55km and beyond. Also it is known that the mixing ratios of naturally occurring CH3Cl shows a rapid decrease with altitude in the stratosphere. The turnover in organic chlorine correlates nicely with the increase in inorganic chlorine. This suggests that CH3Cl may be being photolyzed as it rises high enough in the stratosphere to experience enough short-wavelength UV. [Fabian et al. ] [Zander et al. 1987] [Zander et al. 1992] [Penkett et al.] Methyl chloride (CH3Cl) comes mostly from natural (biological) sources, and is estimated to pass from the troposphere to the stratosphere at the rate of about 1 Mt/year. It is reasonable to assume that this flux has been occurring, at least at this rate, for about a billion years. Whilst there are well known natural sources of organic and inorganic chlorine, and proven mechanisms for the transportation to the stratosphere, there are no demonstrable mechanisms for the removal of HCl from the stratosphere. The argument that a drop off of HCl with altitude in the troposphere is evidence of a low natural upward flux, may also be applied to the stratosphere in reverse. [From Parsons FAQ, Copyright 1995] "...the mixing ratio of HCl _decreases_ with altitude in the troposphere, reaching vanishingly small values at the tropopause, and then _increases_ with altitude in the stratosphere. This rules out all processes in which HCl slowly drifts upward from the troposphere." This also implies that there is no downward drift either. Therefore, if there is no significant sink for HCl in the stratosphere, then a low flux over millenia of volcanic and biological activity will produce a large natural burden of inorganic chlorine reservoir compounds in the stratosphere, at least as significant as the natural tropospheric burden. Consider that mixing ratio measurements for HCl from Kitt Peak go from 1.6e15 molecules/cm^2 in 1977 to ~2.6e15 molecules/cm^2 in 1990. The source for this is Rinland et al., J. Geophys. Res. _96_, 15523, 20 Aug 1991 (with thanks to Robert Parsons). I assume these figures are for stratospheric HCl only. Assuming the above figures to be correct, then I calculate: HCl Mixing ratio = 2.6e15 molecules/cm^2 in 1990 Area of earth = 510E6km^2 = 5.1E18cm^2 No. molecules HCl = 1.326E34 molecules No. moles HCl = 1.326E34/6.02E23 = 2.2E10 moles Mass of HCl = 2.2E10 * 36 grams/mole = 7.9E11 g = 790 kt Assuming that the increase is entirely from CFCs (ie avoiding the volcano debate), the contribution from CFCs is about 2.3kt /year or less than 3% of total Cl from CFC flux (~1-2Mt/year). Also calculating the mass of HCl in 1977 and extrapolating backwards, the natural burden of HCl is about 450 kt. Therefore inorganic Cl compound flux from CFCs is small compared to the natural burden of HCl in the stratosphere. BTW the contribution from natural sources -photolysing of methyl chloride and perhaps (gasp) volcanos - is about 1/4 of that from CFCs [WMO 1991] [Solomon] [AASE] [Rowland 1989,1991] [Wayne], or about 500 t/year. This is the mechanism for generating the 450kt natural burden. One observation which suggests a natural burden of inorganic Cl follows: Measurements in the Chappuis ozone absorption band by the Astrophysical Observatory of the Smithsonian Institution at Mount Wilson, California, in 1912 were studied by Gotz and others, who reported on the ozone decline in various publications. Katmai erupted when inorganic chlorine from anthropogenic sources was probably at negligible levels. Courtesy Forrest M. Mims III, Sun Photometer Atmospheric Network (SPAN) Also from Parson - Copyright 1995: "The total amount of HF in the stratosphere increased by a factor of 3-4 between 1978 and 1989 [Zander et al., 1990] [Rinsland et al.]; the relative increase is larger for HF than for HCl (a factor of 2.2 over the same period) because the natural source, and hence the baseline concentration, is much smaller." Translation: there is much more natural stratospheric HCl than HF arising from anthropogenic sources. The only evidence against the notion of a large natural burden of inorganic Cl compounds is that Dobson, as quoted in his book Exploring the Atmosphere failed to measure a significant drop in ozone in his initial observations during the 50s and 60s. The reasoning is that since PSCs are naturally ubiquitous (and ASSUMED a constant factor) then no observed ozone depletion means no stratospheric Cl compounds. It is worth noting that one of Dobson's co-workers, Marcel Nicolet, admitted in a TV interview, that during the 50s and 60s, anomalous readings below 250 DU were not officially recorded because, said Dobson: "Noone will believe them". (ref: Interview on Belgian TV "Fair skin, stay in." Sept 18, 1992). ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Ozone depletion causes no biological damage. Ozone depletion at the poles results in insignificant UV increase, because the sun is so low on the horizon. Also the area affected is almost entirely devoid of life larger than microbes. At mid-latitudes increase in UV due to ozone depletion is very low compared to daily, seasonal and global variations. This is due to an absence of PSCs (at mid-latitudes) and so ozone depletion only takes place there in the presence of sulphate aerosols from volcanic activity (which is natural). In urban areas of the US, UV-B levels showed no significant increase (and in most cases actually decreased a little) between 1974 and 1985. [Scotto et al.]. This is probably due to increasing urban pollution, including low-level ozone and aerosols. [Grant] [from Parsons FAQ, Copyright 1995] Several studies [Kerr and McElroy] [Mims] [Seckmayer et al.] [Zerefos et al.] have presented evidence of short-term UV-B increases at middle latitudes associated with the record low ozone levels in 1992-93. As discussed in Part I, these low ozone levels are probably due to stratospheric sulfate aerosols from the 1991 eruption of Mt.Pinatubo; Studies done prior to the Mt Pinatubo eruption show no more than a correlation with the flow of ozone poor polar air during the summertime breakdown of the polar vorticies. At most the effects are only a few percent, which is insignificant relative to daily, seasonal and global variations. There is also considerable evidence which supports the assertion that fatal melanomas are related to UV-A and natural light (and not UV-B). This means that it is not possible to correlate ozone depletion with human fatality. [Balliunas] Considering the fact that UV levels have not risen significantly in populated areas, and that it is unlikely that small increases in UV-B will have negative effects anyway, it is difficult formulate a testable hypothesis, let alone devise a test to prove that ozone depletion causes biological harm. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. The Montreal Protocol is expensive, and ineffective in curbing ozone depletion. From MONTREAL PROTOCOL ON SUBSTANCES THAT DEPLETE THE OZONE LAYER LONDON, 27-29 JUNE 1990 ARTICLE 5: SPECIAL SITUATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES18 1. Any Party that is a developing country and whose annual calculated level of consumption of the controlled substances in Annex A is less than 0.3 kilograms per capita on the date of the entry into force of the Protocol for it, or any time thereafter [within ten years of the date of entry into force of the Protocol] until 1 January 1999, shall, in order to meet its basic domestic needs, be entitled to delay for ten years its compliance with the control measures set out in Articles 2A to 2E [...] That is over 100 Mt of CFCs, which developing countries may release into the atmosphere, which is far more than the 1990 annual rate for developing countries. What's more, further restrictions are based on the funding of technology transfers from developed to developing countries, a hidden cost in the abolition of CFCs for countries like Australia. Also China, Japan, Indonesia and Korea are not party to the Montreal Protocol, while developed countries (which are party to the MP) like Australia are obliged, according to the Montreal Protocol, to pay for the changes in infrastructure in developing countries. Not only is the MP an ineffective solution, but it is expensive. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- References: Robert Parsons Ozone FAQ Copyright 1995. In particular sections (2.6) How is chlorine distributed in the stratosphere?, and (7.) Why is the hole in the Antarctic? [Balliunas] Dr Sallie Balliunas PHD, 13th annual congress of doctors for disaster preparation - "Is the ozone layer threatened?" 1995.) [Shanklin]J. D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey, personal communications, 1993-95. [Rinland et al]Rinland et al., J. Geophys. Res. _96_, 15523, 20 Aug 1991 [Waters et al.] J. Waters, L. Froidevaux, W. Read, G. Manney, L. Elson, D. Flower, R. Jarnot, and R. Harwood, "Stratospheric ClO and ozone from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite", _Nature_ _362_, 597, 1993. [Gleason et al.] J. Gleason, P. Bhatia, J. Herman, R. McPeters, P. Newman, R. Stolarski, L. Flynn, G. Labow, D. Larko, C. Seftor, C. Wellemeyer, W. Komhyr, A. Miller, and W. Planet, "Record Low Global Ozone in 1992", _Science_ _260_, 523, 1993. [Farmer et al.] C.B. Farmer, O.F. Raper, and R.H. Norton, "Spectroscopic detection and vertical distribution of HCl in the troposphere and stratosphere", Geophys. Res. Lett. 3, 13, 1975. [Eyre and Roscoe] J. Eyre and H. Roscoe, "Radiometric measurement of stratospheric HCl", Nature 266, 243, 1977. [Fabian et al. 1979] P. Fabian, R. Borchers, K.H. Weiler, U. Schmidt, A. Volz, D.H. Erhalt, W. Seiler, and F. Mueller, "Simultaneously measured vertical profile of H2, CH4, CO, N2O, CFCl3, and CF2Cl2 in the mid-latitude stratosphere and troposphere", J. Geophys. Res. 84, 3149, 1979. [Fabian et al. 1981] P. Fabian, R. Borchers, S.A. Penkett, and N.J.D. Prosser, "Halocarbons in the Stratosphere", Nature 294, 733, 1981. [Penkett et al.] S.A. Penkett, R.G. Derwent, P. Fabian, R. Borchers, and U. Schmidt, "Methyl Chloride in the Stratosphere", Nature 283, 58, 1980. [Zander et al. 1987] R. Zander, C. P. Rinsland, C. B. Farmer, and R. H. Norton, "Infrared Spectroscopic measurements of halogenated source gases in the stratosphere with the ATMOS instrument", J. Geophys. Res. 92, 9836, 1987. [Zander et al. 1992] R. Zander, M. R. Gunson, C. B. Farmer, C. P. Rinsland, F. W. Irion, and E. Mahieu, "The 1985 chlorine and fluorine inventories in the stratosphere based on ATMOS observations at 30 degrees North latitude", J. Atmos. Chem. 15, 171, 1992.
Andrew Taylor (andrewt@cs.su.oz.au) wrote: ... : What I do understand is in that trying to discredit Ehrlich et al. in : his sci.environment posting on this subject John McCarthy made a number : of errors. : First he misquoted Ehrlich et al. in a form that he could easily : falsify [5], then he confused consumption with biomass [6], then : confused metabolic rate with growth rate [7], then didn't know there : is an important relationship between biomass and energy flow [8]. : Not understanding undergrad ecology is no crime. Even then presuming a : perceived discrepency in an explanation of undergrad ecology by a : well-known ecologist is a mistake on the ecologists behalf is merely : foolish. : Broadcasting this claim with an accompanying defamation is much worse. : It seems to me John McCarthy's defamation is instead a fair summary of his : contribution here: : "great at making up slogans but not so good on facts." Many of us knew this all along. In my books, John M. comes under the heading of !!! TROLL !!! Regards, Yuri. -- ** Yuri Kuchinsky in Toronto ** -- a webpage like any other... http://www.io.org/~yuku -- Most of the evils of life arise from man's being unable to sit still in a room || B. PascalReturn to Top
Jeff Skinner (tigger@bnr.ca) wrote: : _]: I agree with this, but one must consider the possibility that the : _]: screwed up governmental policies and civil wars are significantly exacerbated : _]: by existing local overpopulation. : _] : _]Not a possibility, but a certainty! This is so obvious that only a : _]complete ideological fanatic will fail to see the connection. Fanatic : _]with a hidden agenda. : _]Yuri. : Fanatic with a hidden agenda. Its good, I like it. How about : adding it to your sig, yuku ? Hey, I don't have a "hidden agenda"! Ecologically, Yuri. -- Yuri Kuchinsky | "Where there is the Tree of Knowledge, there ------------------------| is always Paradise: so say the most ancient Toronto ... the Earth | and the most modern serpents." F. Nietzsche -------- A WEBPAGE LIKE ANY OTHER: http://www.io.org/~yuku -----------Return to Top
In <57cfcv$q19@news.inforamp.net> dlj@inforamp.net (David Lloyd-Jones) writes: > >On Thu, 14 Nov 1996 08:06:36 -0700, mfriesel@ix.netcom.com wrote: >> >>What continually amazes me is the number of Ashers and McCarthys who >>present themselves as experts at everything having to do with the >>environment and the economy, science, medicine and technology; and >>will do those trained in a given field the honor of defining their >>terms for them, will provide experts in a field with the correct >>interpretation of pertinent data, and tell them what information is >>pertinent and what is not as well. > >It is of course a lie and a libel to say that Asher or McCarthy >"present themselves as experts on everything having to do with >environment and the economy." > >But then it doesn't take an expert in anything, only a certain amount >of logic and ordinary factual knowledge, to poke holes in the drone >and moan of the environmental catastrophists. Accepting the basic premises of a discipline is not a precondition for passing critical judgment on it. It does not take an astrologist to discard astrological forecasts as worthless. On the contrary, it takes a non-astrologist.Return to Top
charliew@hal-pc.org (charliew) wrote: >In article <57ial3$2th@spool.cs.wisc.edu>, > tobis@scram.ssec.wisc.edu (Michael Tobis) wrote: >>charliew (charliew@hal-pc.org) wrote: >> >>: Wrong! I have much knowledge of thermo and quantum >>: mechanics. I also have much knowledge of human nature >and >>: the effect of pessimistic/liberal attitudes on peoples' >>: outlooks on life. I find it amusing that you pessimists >>: think mankind is intelligent enough to get into trouble >with >>: his inventions, but too stupid to find a way out of the >>: trouble that has been created from those inventions. Oh, >>: yee of little faith! Based on your outlook and >assumptions, >>: it is a miracle that humans have existed on this planet >for >>: this long! >> >>I can't speak for other pessimists, and I find it >irritating >>that people respond to perceived social groups rather than >>actual arguments. >> >>For myself, I think people are smart enough to find >>solutions, but not smart enough to figure out a way to >implement >>them. I think that the evidence that we should avoid >increasing >>emissions (NOTE - avoid increasing the annual rate of >emission, >>not cut of all emissions) in particular is prudent and >cost-effective, >>but fuzzy thinking like charliew's will likely prevent us >from >>doing this, and in the end, the price to be paid will be >much >>larger than otherwise. This is not because of insufficient >>understanding as a maximum among the society - the usual >measure >>of scientific and engineering progress, but because of >insufficient >>understanding among the broad reaches of democracy. >> >>If someone as bright as charliew can't be brought to >understand >>risk management in the face of uncertainty, how can we hope >for >>society as a whole to accede to up-front costs to avoid >much >>larger risks, especially when those risks which will be >proven >>without doubt only in the event that the policy is >unsuccessful??? >> >>At least in conventional insurance situations there's >usually someone >>around to say "thank goodness I had the flood insurance". >We only >>have one biosphere to play with, and so long as we avoid >serious >>problems there will be those who argue that the problems >were always >>imaginary. I don't see that society's ability to identify >legitimate >>expertise versus junk science is improving, and ultimately >that's >>a necessary precursor to a logical response. And even that >necessity >>is far from sufficient. >> >>mt >> >Let's see why I seem to exhibit "fuzzy" thinking. The last >time I checked, we were all practically doomed by 50 parts >per trillion of freon in the stratosphere, CO2 is going to well charlie and the rest of the anti enviro group refuse to cite peer reviewed work to back their ludicrous claims. But for those that intrested in the damage of increased uv exposure from ozone destruction via cfcs. Check out the following article detailing the increase in skin cancer. Slaper, Nov211996 Nature. >lead to catastrophic climate change, I can't expect to well the UN report has already stated that human's are responsable for a increase in global temp. >remain healthy if I eat red meat, chicken, fish, traces of >any kind of pesticide, cholesterol, etc., my drinking water >has traces of every contaminant known to man in it, bacteria >are now eating human flesh and getting so strong that no >antibiotic can affect them, AIDS will kill us all if we >don't immediately find a cure, and so on, ad nauseum! All >of these catastrophes are occurring in a time when I am one effect that has been postulated for global warming is increased disease >statistically living longer and healthier than ever before, >due largely to the technological progress that many >environmentalists seem so hell-bent to eliminate! charlie is really clueless. The environment movement is not trying to eliminate technology,but certainly demand that technolgy proceed in an environmently friendly way. >I am sick and tired of the "boy who cried wolf". If >positive proof exists that something harmful needs >attention, I don't have a problem in taking action. well if you read the scientific lit you would already know we have the positive proof >However, for all the chicken littles out there, I say it's >time to put up or shut up! Show me a real problem that will >ultimately lead to catastrophe, or stop preaching your same >tired droning sermon! I'm getting very tired of hearing the >same sad song, especially in a day and age when an optimist >would say that things have never looked better. >BTW, have a happy thanksgiving.Return to Top
Todd Andrews wrote: > > Tracy W wrote: > > > > How did nuclear testing affect environment deeply? > > It didn't. I was living in Vancouver back in the days of the Chernobyl disaster. Vancouver prides itself on its great water, but either because of Chernobyl or perhaps as a routine, the supply was tested for radiocativity and was found to be contaminated. This made headlines, at least locally. What was less known however was that further testing of the contamination didn't look like reactor products, but rather like bomb products. When pressed the US military acknowledge that yes, they had just exploded a test under the desert. |++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++| | Doug Craigen | | | | Need help in physics? Check out the pages listed here: | | http://www.cyberspc.mb.ca/~dcc/phys/physhelp.html | |++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++|Return to Top
This is a multi-part message in MIME format. --------------7FF6594E2CB5 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Silvana Grandillo wrote: > > Actually, according to some scholars we ARE already in the year 2,000 > > It is believed, infact, the Christ was born some 4 years before the time > that it is commonly known. > So, 1996 would turn into 2,000. > So, we ARE into the new millenium (according to some who studied the > matter). > Does it still matter ? > > S. > > In article <57f76n$80s_002@leeds.ac.uk>, CDS4AW@leeds.ac.uk says... > > > >In article <56vkke$qp6@news.one.net>, > >api@axiom.access.one.net (Adam Ierymenko) wrote: > > > >>Actually, the milennium does matter. I don't think it has > >any supernatural > >>significance, but it will feel different. Something about > >a number with three > >>zeroes after it. A new *thousand years*. > >> > >>It will feel like, well, the future. > > > >But I think a lot of people might just wake up one day in > >March or April 2000 and think, hey, what the hell has > >changed? because people are kind of seeing it as some "new > >dawn".... then when they realise nothing has changed, > >there'll be a lot of pretty pissed off people out there. > > > >+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > >"The most perceptive work on British Politics in the > >last 150 years may turn out to be 'Alice in Wonderland'" > >(Neil Middleton, 1993, "Tears of the Crocodile") > > > >cds4aw@lucs-01.novell.leeds.ac.uk > >Any unsolicited e-mail will not even be read, > >so don't bother. > >+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ...hello..... i have heard..."the true history of a culture...is its myths" that 4-BC birthdate of Jesus...is not relavant!!!!!..as it is not part of the myth, I feel. each age, is a millenium.....each 1000 year age. here is my feelings..done on a "jounal-disk".....on this matter, of the meanings of the end-times millenium. they are part of a series of visions that i had...on the end-times and earth changes..... if anyone would like to read the visions, themselves, that i had...in the 1992-now...time frame...mail me..[[free@polaris.net]] ...freestone --------------7FF6594E2CB5 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; name="high school vision 3.txt" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline; filename="high school vision 3.txt" Date: Sun, 17 Nov 1996 07:31:45 -0500 From: Freestone WilsonReturn to TopTo: hi..again ....here is last night's dream. i typed it out, for someone else..it is not word wrapped! ,,,freestonenov. 17--i had a dream...that i went to my high school, and met with fellow students and teachers...from the 1960's!! i have the suspician that this was partly astral---there may have been a bunch of people, who OBE--ed to come here. and..somehow i was telling them something...BEYOND my ordinary knowledge...as if i were, myself, channeling it, or recieving inspiration. i hope so!!! for I, who have been recieving all these VISIONS of the end-times, where "IT BEGINS, IN 1996" (!!!) ...i would HOPE that this dream is true...as i have had so many visions of great suffering...some of which, is on this very comment section! ---for "i"..merely told these people..."that the Lord, in his mercy, has permitted an INDIAN SUMMER of the spirit, to bless the earth, at this time. ..and that everyone should take great advantage, of this time of grace, to progress one's soul, and to get right with spirit, and to finish up all the creative acts, of one's life"!!! MY!.....in my childhood place of growing-up (where this high school, is)..there is this thing called, "Indian Summer". it is where there is a whole stretch of fall, october , weather...of perfect skies...warm temperatures...calm winds..and the leaves are so so colorfull. it can go on for a week, or even for several weeks. it is a time for to get ready for winter; and a time to enjoy the beauty of upstate New York, at its fine-ist. so, from this dream...if it IS of spirit, reporting of the will of the Lord...we will, for a year or so...have a calm earth...no great major volcanoes..no great disasters!! it is a time to "finish up the Schoolwork", of one's life-missions...to make amends with all people, to forgive one and all...to be creative..to reach out to Spirit, and to let go of what you cannot take with you. in the Northlands..if there is an Indian Summer...that seems to go on, perfect; seemingly forever...watch out!!! ---for WHEN the artic blast comes..it will roar in BIG TIME ..and freeze everything dead, in one fridgid, freezing, blast...of 40 mph winds..and 10 degrees far. temperatures..snow covering all! so..do it now, during this time of grace!---finish up high school, and prepare for college! freestone..nov 17 --------------7FF6594E2CB5 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; name="no.txt" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline; filename="no.txt" Freestone Wilson wrote: > > that i did not feel that the end-times were "bad"! > maybe i should briefly summerize my position.... > > > {{Why I am not depressed, over the end-time prophetic visions that i > received!!! }} > somewhere in the Bible it says that after we go to heaven, after the > rapture and all of us will be with Jesus...in a new heaven-new > earth...it is not a FINAL promotion!! for Jesus and the ascended > masters live in the celestial realms...with God..co-creators with God. > but, this celestial realm--s is/are far above the new heaven-new earth! > Jesus comes down, so to speak, and establishes an OUTPOST, of himself, > and with his saintly helpers..on the new earth; which, this new earth, > is ABOVE our earth, in vibration. we, from here-now...can not see this > new earth-to-come...its vibration will be on the lowest level of the" > heaven-floors"--in this "skyscraper" called "the heavens"! > there, Jesus will help us all, get ready to be able to go with Him, to > go live in the Celestial realms--with Jesus...where God is!!! > a "1000" years to be with Jesus...those who can not "make it"..will > start again, i imagine..onto a physical earth, somewhere. > > ---this is what i mean, by "college"!! > a "1000" years with Jesus and the Masters...to get us "up to speed"..to > go live in Jesus's home world! > because the "natural laws"..of this new earth, will be Spiritual > laws,(after all, this world will be in the heaven-realms!)...this is why > "Jesus will be with everyone---he will be before all our eyes"!! > > ---it will be as if there are TWO souls, in our hearts...yours---and > Jesus's!!! when we grow, thus, in our souls, to be the same "size" as > Jesus's soul...we go into and through him...into his home, celestial, > worlds! > all this will occur, after the end-times, rolls over the age...and the > new age begins...and many of us will be up there, in this new > college-earth...to begin the course-work, just described! > > what will it be like??!!! > these last few years, have been a foreshadowing of what is to > come...much creativity...the "NET"..forgiveness...greater love...etc---- > ---we tain't seen nothun, yet!!!!!i cannot imagine the 1,000,000% > change, after the next age begins!!! > > set up long ago..before man walked the earth... > thus, the Georgian calendar..is only a REFLECTION of this pont of time > of the changes!!---these changes were set in "concrete"...ages ago...and > the "year 2000", only reflects this...as the "year 2000" was set up, to > be "now"!!!---back then..at the church council meetings...1500-odd years > ago! > > too...4000 BC..is the creation. 3000 BC..is the 2nd milleniium > beginning. > 0 BC_AD..is the beginning of the 5th millenium. 1000 AD..begins the 6th > millenium. thus..the 7th millenium begins at 2000 AD!!! > and it is so---that the "7th day" is a day of rest...meaning: > NONPHYSICAL!!! the 7th octave, of a "7 tier-system"---is always > partaking, of the next tier-level, above that one! > as if the 7th year, of a grade school/ high school, partakes of the > COLLEGE, to come, after graduation! > > non-physical! > be with Jesus, Individually...He will be a Private tutor..for each of > us, individually. (or some other Master, perhaps, for some!)...we will > learn to be living in the Celestial-realms, with this tutoring. .the > lower Celestial realms, after our "1000 years"..will be our GRAD > SCHOOL!! the doctor's degree, we will study for, there ..will enable > us to become Citizens of the Galaxy!!!...the "Galactic Foundation"..of > progressed spirit-races...from all over the galaxy..much like our > science fiction writers have imagined!! > we are getting a taste OF THIS CELESTIAL REALM, NOW...if WE CAN OPEN > TO IT..AND NOT LET OUR "SINS".....become what is manifested...as the > "tares WILL sprout, along with the wheat"!!! > --Freestone > --------------7FF6594E2CB5--
In <3299E756.7608@ilhawaii.net> Jay HansonReturn to Topwrites: >The relationship between environmental scarcity and violent conflict >is well known ... not to exist.
In <57cikt$80s_004@leeds.ac.uk> CDS4AW@leeds.ac.uk (A. Whitworth) writes: > >In article <3294811A.2781@studi.unizh.ch>, David Christopher >ProbstReturn to Topwrote: >>John Moore wrote: >>> >>> Sure, there are exceptions... a few. >> >>What do you mean by exceptions? There are exceptions to any >rule, aren't >>there? > >That is about the least useful statement it is possible to >make with regard to any debate at all. Saying that something >is "the exception that proves the rule" is just a way to >ignore something and hope that it goes away. If there is an >exception then there is no rule, so find out why the >exception is there. In _King's English_, by Fowler and Fowler, an explanation is given to that strange expression, "the exception proves the rule": it was originally used by lawyers in the sense that the lawgiver, by specifying an exception, confirms his understanding that there exists a rule to which this is an exception. E.g., a law exempting some people from conscription would not make sense in the absence of conscription. So, in a debate about the lawfulness of conscription in general, such a law might be used to argue that it is lawful. I've seen other people argue (and quote a dictionary) that "proves" in this locution really means "tests" (like "the proof of the pudding is in the eating"). An exception certainly *does* test a rule - and flunk it, too. I doubt this interpretation (in spite of the dictionary's authority): people also say "the exception confirms the rule"; and apparently in French and in Russian only this version exists, without the ambiguity of the English word "prove". Fowler's interpretation makes more sense to me.
InReturn to Topjmc@Steam.stanford.edu (John McCarthy) writes: > >1. Capitalism is not great. It's just better than the alternatives. This seems to be a distinction without a difference. Capitalism (to the extent that it exists) is the freest, fairest, most efficient and most progressive economic system known, by a large margin. If this is not "great", what is?
Maxy MariasegaramReturn to Topwrote: >A small question for people who might be familiar with this area: what is >the extent of PCP breakdown in pine needles or within leaves in general? I >have not been successful in finding any literature that covers this area. Wow, a scientific question about the environment, appropriately cross-posted. Although I'm not familiar with the area, I'd suggest getting ( if you haven't already - in which case ignore this message ) "Organic Pollutant Accumulation in Vegetation" Staci L. Simonich and Ronald A. Hite. Environmental Science and Technology v.29 p.2905-2914. In it, you will find an email address for one of the authors ( to whom you could address your question ), and a discussion on degradation of some organics in vegetation. They also reference several papers that use pine needles, including two that measured PCP, namely S.Jenson,G.Ericksson, H.Kylin, W.M.J.Strachen Chemosphere, 1992, v.24 p.229-245. W.M.J.Strachen,G.Ericksson, H.Kylin, S.Jenson Environ. Toxicol. Chem. !994, v.13 p.443-451. Bruce Hamilton
In <57dgat$e82@news.inforamp.net> dlj@inforamp.net (David Lloyd-Jones) writes: >Brian, > >I would have thought that there is a good case to be made that Siberia >is overpopulated. Paradoxicaly, this makes sense. The net flow of people across the Urals has been westward for many decades. At this very moment there is a terrible fuel and food crunch in parts of Siberia, and desperate people are fleeing to European Russia, where they have neither jobs nor apartments. > It's now twenty-four years since I've been there, >but since that time Lake Baikal has been found to be severely polluted >and shrunken in size. When I was there people already talked >wistfully about how good the hunting had been in their fathers' time. Though true, it is not the reason for the "overpopulation". Hunting and fishing couldn't support that many people, anyway. The real reason is given in the next sentence: this is not really overpopulation but underdevelopment. >To find a place that is not over-populated you have to go to someplace >like Holland -- where there is the technical superstructure to provide >for the human beings. Oddly, we know how to do that for a region of >industrial agriculture. It's wilderness, with which we have thousands >of years of experience, that we don't know how to handle properly. But we do: turn it into a Holland. We don't have a proper treatment for poverty - *except* to eliminate it. The same is true of wastelands.Return to Top
... aus.politics not accessible from here, deleted. In article <57jj97$qmn$1@sydney.DIALix.oz.au> Greig Ebeling (eggsoft@sydney.DIALix.oz.au) included: [...] The argument that a drop off of HCl with altitude in the troposphere is evidence of a low natural upward flux, may also be applied to the stratosphere in reverse. Not, if the HCl mixing ratio in the lower stratosphere is higher than in the upper troposphere. Which currently, to my knowledge, is the case. In the upper troposphere HCl appears to be typically below 100 pptv, compared to several hundreds of pptv of HCl in the lower stratosphere. [Zander, fig.1] [Vierkorn] [...] This also implies that there is no downward drift either. Therefore, if there is no significant sink for HCl in the strato- sphere, then a low flux over millenia of volcanic and biological activity will produce a large natural burden of inorganic chlorine reservoir compounds in the stratosphere ... I'm not sure what you try to say here. Do you claim that no air is exchanged between the troposphere and the stratosphere ? (Wondering where all that 14C and 10Be is coming from :) Or do you mean to say that there are little demons at the tropopause saying "no trespassing" if stratospheric HCl tries to enter the troposphere ? [Vierkorn] B. Vierkorn-Rudolph, K. Baechmann, and B. Schwarz, Vertical profiles of hydrogen chloride in the troposphere, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry 2 (1984), 47-63 [Zander] R. Zander, M.R. Gunson, C.B. Farmer, C.P. Rinsland, F.W. Irion, and E. Mahieu, The 1985 chlorine and fluorine inventories in the stratosphere based on ATMOS observations at 30 degrees North latitude, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry 15 (1992), 171-186 By the way, does anyone happen to know what current estimates of stratospheric turnover time look like ? (I mean the number of years it takes an air mass equal to the mass of the stratosphere to be exchanged across the tropopause.) Jan Schloerer jschloer@rzmain.rz.uni-ulm.deReturn to Top
InReturn to Tophexis@netcom.com (James C. Harrison) writes: > >The Greeks knew that any unopposed power would destroy itself. A world >with only market values suffers from this problem. No, it does not - because a market is an arena where *many* powers interact. >Capitalism works as >well or better than other economic systems so long as its power is >moderated by other genuine powers. Capitalism is (among other things) economic *pluralism*. Under capitalism many powers *are* moderating each other. The above objection to capitalism is therefore sophistical, based on arbitrarily bundling many things, and then complaining that there is only one bundle. It is saying that some tyranny is needed to offset the tyranny of freedom; that some uniformity ought to be added to diversify the uniformity of diversity; that some monopoly must be introduced to balance the monopoly of a non-monopolistic market.
Greig Ebeling writes: >Consider that mixing ratio measurements for HCl from Kitt Peak go from 1.6e15 >molecules/cm^2 in 1977 to ~2.6e15 molecules/cm^2 in 1990. The source for >this is Rinland et al., J. Geophys. Res. _96_, 15523, 20 Aug 1991 (with >thanks to Robert Parsons). I assume these figures are for stratospheric >HCl only. >Assuming the above figures to be correct, then I calculate: >HCl Mixing ratio = 2.6e15 molecules/cm^2 in 1990 >Area of earth = 510E6km^2 = 5.1E18cm^2 >No. molecules HCl = 1.326E34 molecules >No. moles HCl = 1.326E34/6.02E23 = 2.2E10 moles >Mass of HCl = 2.2E10 * 36 grams/mole = 7.9E11 g = 790 kt >Assuming that the increase is entirely from CFCs (ie avoiding the volcano >debate), the contribution from CFCs is about 2.3kt /year or less than 3% >of total Cl from CFC flux (~1-2Mt/year). I think the 2.3 kt should be 23 kt =~ 2-3 % of total CFC flux, but it is still a lot less than 1 Mt. I am wondering how you can find a emission rate of 2 Mt however WMO [1990] gives the number 0.8 Mt a year. Cumulative production up to 1990 is about 20 Mt But, you have not told us where the rest of the CFC is. Has it dropped to the ground? No, the CFC is still in the stratosphere, acting as a new source, and since the lifetime of CFC is much longer than for CH3Cl, you have already "used up" the natural emission after a few years, while the CFC concentration may continue to growth. To show this have made a little "model calculation" which I will present below. Values used: Lifetime CFC :100 years Lifetime CH3Cl:1 year (Wayne Chemistry of Atmospheres, 1 year lifetime in the troposphere, less than 1 year in the stratosphere) Lifetime HCl in the atmosphere 2 years (Parsons faq Simplifying the calculations Lifetime=100% loss, not 63 % Emissions CFC 0.8 Mt/year Flux of CFC to the stratosphere: 1 Mt /year ( no loss in the troposphere) Flux of CH3Cl to the stratosphere=0.25*0.8Mt/year=0.2Mt/year Timestep of the model 0.5 years Initial mass: 0kt Mass given in kt, no decimal numbers CH3Cl CFC HClnatural HCl anthr. 0.5 year: 100 400 0 0 1 year: 150 798 50 2 1.5 year: 175 1194 113 5 2. year: 188 1588 172 10 2.5 year: 194 1980 223 16 3. year: 197 2370 264 22 3.5 year: 198 2758 296 28 4. year: 199 3145 321 35 5. year: 200 3911 355 49 10. year: 200 7631 397 123 20. year: 200 14534 400 264 30. year: 200 20779 400 391 31. year: 200 21370 400 403 After 30 years with this v e r y simple model we have about the situation. described in your message. Cumulatice emission after 30. years is 24 Mt, not to far from the value given in WMO[1990] As you can see the anthropogenic HCl part is about the same amount as that from natural sources even though the yearly increase from anthropogenic emissions are only about 12-13 kt. The steady state values of the "model" is by the way: 200 80000 400 1600 You should of course not use this model to calculate the budget itself, since it so simplified, but I hope that it can explain to you how relatively small yearly increases may add up to a significant contribution. Oeyvind Seland Department of Geophysics University of OsloReturn to Top
J McGinnis wrote: > Only about 1/3 of those facing famine are in Africa, most of the rest > are in South and Southeast Asia. Africa is considered to be more of a > problem because the population is still doubling with each generation. > >. Wasn't it just a few years ago that AIDS was supposed to devastate the population of Africa because 60 or 90% had it? Hollering wolf too often makes it much harder to get attention-pretty soon the envoirementilists will have to bring in the pelt to keep from being laughed at. Which is too bad because they have some valid points that need to be examimed. Dale WagnerReturn to Top
In <32ca3601.298311109@nntp.net-link.net> briand@net-link.net (Brian Carnell) writes: > >On 24 Nov 1996 14:25:12 GMT, yuku@io.org (Yuri Kuchinsky) wrote: >> Japanese logging companies are destroying the rainforests of SE >>Asia faster than you can say "libertarian". Now they moved into Siberia to >>continue the same. The same? Destroying the *rainforests of Siberia*?! Now that is more than naughty of them. It's nutty. :-)Return to Top
Hi Claire Gilbert, I don't think air getting cleaner. The word 'cleaner' is misleading. Because the pollutants are emitted day to day. I think the U.S. EPA is reported that the emission of pollutants are under control, therefore, the air quality will better compared with the past year. Even though emission of pollutants are decrease, the air quality may not necessary be improved. It is depended on that the input into the system is lesser than the output of the system. For example, the SO2 emission is less than that SO2 suspended or transfered to whatever form deposited (dry / wet) in the surface of the territories. I ++ LO/\O Lai lotto@sky.com.hkReturn to Top
Sorry, I was off the air when Rod Adams offered the following bet: >> Here is a prediction and a bet. I predict that the total contribution >> of wind generated electricity in the United States will not >> exceed 5% of the total market in any given year. Anyone who would like >> to place a bet with me of up to $100 can receive 5:1 odds that >> this prediction will remain true through at least 2020. > >> Rod Adams >> Adams Atomic Engines, Inc. Mr. Adams, you have a taker at $100. Of course, this is probably only $1.89 in inflation adjusted dollars. But, what the hay - its the principle of the thing. Mike Bergey Bergey Windpower Co. Norman, OK < mbergey@bergey.com > http://www.bergey.com P.S. - Rod, our 10 kW wind tubines already produce energy cheaper than 1,200 MW nukes.Return to Top
The smokey mountains were named such because of the natural smoke emitted by all the trees. This was long before any factories or cars existed.Return to Top
Ron Goins <"Jjoins"@ix,netcom.com> wrote: > > Thomas H. Kunich wrote: > > Who were this guy's chief (almost total) customers? The cops. While I was > > there a cop bought a quite illegal bazooka. I didn't see the thing and > > so couldn't swear to it, but that was what he asked for and he received > > a box of the appropriate size. > just wondering..... > what does this have to do with mountain BIKERS????? > oh, i see that it has been spammed acrss a whole bunch of > newsgroups..... some people will never learn. Ok... how's this for making it on-topic... The Swiss Army has a regiment of bicycle-mounted soldiers that technically pre-dated the use and invention of the mountain bike, and they carry ALL their equipment with them on their bikes including Bazooka's and various other anti-tank armnaments... happy now?!?Return to Top
In article <01bbda6c$254dcf00$185392cf@rayspaw>, "Ray Spaw"Return to Topwrites: :On the other hand, a pistol of appropriate caliber for anticipated animal :hazards, with hunting ammo can certainly be handy if there's a mastiff or :pit bull you can't outrun or shout down, as happened to a friend recently. :Luckily he had a 9mm with him (licensed) and the pit bull that attacked him :was dispatched quickly on the road. There was an old design of low-calibre pistol made, probably around the turn of the century or maybe a little later, called a "Velo-dog" pistol. The device was small calibre, around .22 to .25, with a folding trigger and no trigger guard. It was only about a 2 shot design, designed to fire mushrooming or expanding ammo, with the intent of either killing or crippling any dog it was used on, thus allowing the cyclist to escape. In the UK these days, it seems like you can't even say you own a firearm of any sort without being labeled a dangerous lunatic. However, making a paintball gun that fires either an irritant, such as powdered cayenne pepper dust, or an adhesive, or something, is attractive, as is making a very powerful waterpistol, and loading it with a gel/slime mix containing capsaicin, plus some stinking agent, plus an anti-lick agent. This latter idea is probably the best; coat the dog with something that really smells dreadful and is distasteful enough that the dog won't lick it off. That would be a memorable experience for both dog and owner... :Interestingly, a local deputy witnessed :it and, after checking my friend's license, went to the owner's house and :told him to collect the carcass off the road. It's unfortunate that the :owner was vicious and taught his dog to be likewise. I didn't hear if the :owner saved the pelt and meat, though. ;) Nah, prdators are usually not good eating, and unless it was an interesting brindle or pure white, I'd probably not bother with the pelt, either. If you want decent pelts, go looking for roadkilled cats or rabbits... It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion, it is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed, the hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning, it is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. Dan Holdsworth, drh92@aber.ac.uk **SPAMMERS WILL BE FILTERED**
jw (jwas@ix.netcom.com) wrote: : >atanu@are.Berkeley.EDU (Atanu Dey) wrote: : >> Blightly calculating : >>that there are only 700 million malnourished people in the world : >>and not 800 million is great for nitpicking on the usenet. : I wonder what "blightly" means: "blithely", "brightly", : or is it derived from "blight"? jw, I promise to actually proofread my posts instead of blithely posting away. Thanks for pointing out the error. Regards, AtanuReturn to Top
Yuri Kuchinsky (yuku@io.org) wrote: : You're right, my marshmallow-for-brains friend. I have spent many years in : the poor and overpopulated 3rd world countries, and feel kind of emotional : about all the suffering that goes on there. I agree with Yuri. It is heartbreaking to see the suffering that is the consequence of overpopulation and poverty. How much technology has done to generally improve the state of the world has little meaning for someone who is suffering here and now. I don't deny that today there are more people enjoying a comfortable existence than ever before. But that brings the suffering of a billion in even more sharp relief. I feel that that suffering is meaningless, dehumanizing and stupid. I believe that if it were in the interests of the powerful of this world, they would be able to solve the problem without major disruption in their lifestyles. Yet they don't do that. I suspect that ultimately, it is a rational choice by the movers and shakers. If the third world were to prosper, it would hurt the interests of the first world. That is an unsupported hypothesis. Yet, I am forced to conclude that because I don't see any reason why the population explosion of the world cannot be halted humanely with the application of known technology and a few billion dollars. I believe that as long as the third world continues to have near subsistence level surplus population, wages would be sufficiently depressed so that labor intensive goods can be imported cheaply from there by the first world. And corruption and greed on the part of the 'leaders' of the third world would ensure a steady military struggle which would require the imports of armaments from the first world and continue the cycle of poverty and dependence. I don't doubt that the third world deserves every misfortune that it is prey to. They are revealed to be weak and stupid. Darwinian selection would take care of them in the not too long term. Yet I feel for the children who are born blameless and then grow up to contribute to the mess that is the third world. Wish I had the power to force the world leaders to live under grinding poverty and hunger for just a month. And the people who are so good at arithmetic to live on an empty stomach for 3 days - I wonder how comforted they will be by the thought that although they are hungry, there are more people living well today than ever before in the history of mankind. AtanuReturn to Top
jw (jwas@ix.netcom.com) wrote: : In <3299E756.7608@ilhawaii.net> Jay HansonReturn to Top: writes: : >The relationship between environmental scarcity and violent conflict : >is well known : ... not to exist. I suggest you try out a little thought experiment, jw. If you were in a room with a fixed amount of food, when do you think there is a greater likelihood of a violent conflict: a) there are only a few people who can comfortably divide the food amongst themselves b) there are 3 times the number of people than in part a) above If the answer is b), does it require maximum likelihood estimation methods to conclude that environmental scarcity has some relation to the occurrence of violent conflict? Is it a lack of imagination, or a lack of knowledge, or inability to reason logically - what is it that makes you say that there is no relationship? Regards, Atanu
I >>I was already aware that these locations would not be up to the >>standards of, say, Los Angeles (a desert), or Toronto (a swamp). > >Or New York or Atlanta or Pittsburgh or any number of places that >did not have to be somehow converted the way your two very >atypical examples do. > not true: Manhatten was a swampy island. All of these area needed flattenning, clearing, etc: something you CANT do in your lifetime, you need cooperation. -- David Weinstein A Yankee AbroadReturn to Top
Does any one know whether Carbon Dioxide has ever been declared or cited as a pollutant. I am not talking about the Greenhouse effect etc etc, ii it a poolutant like for instance, BOD, chlorine ? -------------------==== Posted via Deja News ====----------------------- http://www.dejanews.com/ Search, Read, Post to UsenetReturn to Top
Jane Allen (ballen@iwl.net) wrote: : The smokey mountains were named such because of the natural smoke : emitted by all the trees. This was long before any factories or cars : existed. : That's what "Field Guide to the Atmosphere" calls "blue haze", and is quite natural. Also natural is "gray haze". However, there is also "brown to smoky blue haze", which is man-caused. The Field Guide also gives information on the particle sizes of various hazes. Blue haze particles are 0.1 to 0.3 microns. Pollution haze particles are generally larger, and often hygroscopic, so scatter and absorb light more effectively than "blue haze".Return to Top