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ECOLOGICAL RULES OF MANKIND DEVELOPMENT? (Tetior A.] -- tetior@aha.ru (Alexandr Tetior)
Re: This is impossible -- Edmond Wollmann
Re: Whaling Action Alert: Urge Clinton to Sanction Canada for Pirate Whaling -- David Eitelbach
Re: Global warming/climate change: a new appoach -- Hugh Easton
Re: Whaling Action Alert: Urge Clinton to Sanction Canada for Pirate Whaling -- David Eitelbach
Re: Reintroducing the grizzly to California -- chrisclarke@igc.apc.org (Chris Clarke)
Re: Black Bears -- donb@rational.com (Don Baccus)
Re: This is impossible -- "Eric Lucas"
Re: This is impossible -- "Bruce C. Fielder"
Re: Whaling Action Alert: Urge Clinton to Sanction Canada for Pirate Whaling -- David Eitelbach
Release of GEO-1 (Global Environment Outlook-1) on the Internet -- Linda Black

Articles

ECOLOGICAL RULES OF MANKIND DEVELOPMENT? (Tetior A.]
tetior@aha.ru (Alexandr Tetior)
Mon, 27 Jan 1997 19:34:41 GMT
                            ECOLOGICAL RULES OF MANKIND DEVELOPMENT?
  Why there  are not special ecological rules (laws) or taboo for
interactions between mankind and nature?  Why a mankind during
hundreds years created not ecological code similar to Bible
commandments?
   Religious rules  was  created at civilisation dawn was interactions
code between  mans  and nature.  The planet was in clean condition and
there was not problems of its pollution and overpopulation.  Therefore
this  religious  code includes interactions between people (Bible
commandments "esteem your father and your mother",  "don't steal",
"don't kill",  etc., Bible mortal sins - licentiousness, smoking,
etc.). Many commandments was directed to mankind preservation.
     According to Bible the planet was gave to people on God
benevolence: " And fill planet,  and possess,  and own,...". But a man
must was fear of  God  punishment for bed running of economy.  A man
forgot possible punishments and "possession of Planet" idea  was
transformed in anthropocentric model of World: a man is highest
creation of nature serves for his needs satisfaction.
    Religious contains all experience of interaction between people
and nature of all mankind,  but interactions by nature stand not in
first place in religious.  The mankind collided with global ecological
problems in hundreds years.  The problems foresaw not Bible creator.
Full unity between  people and nature and prohibition of nature
destroy are at all times in primitive religiouses, in cults.
   Now there is important necessity of new ecological moral postulates
creation and their implanting in mass consciousness similar to
religious postulates.    Ecology examine a mutual between living
organisms and  environment. This mutual  formed in millions years and
brought to their sustainable interaction. The mutual described in many
ecological laws,  rules  and principles.
   A man differs from other living organisms as regards to natural
environment. Development mankind history demonstrates it transformed
in global force changes a nature. Special ecological rules are
necessary for mankind development description.  A separation of
special ecological "rules (laws) of mankind development" may help to
see catastrophic peculiarities of man interaction with nature and may
help  to  keep  a life and nature on planet.  New "ecological rules of
mankind  development" are described below.
   1.A "Rule of chaotic demographic increase" presents  a  danger  for
all mankind.  Multiplication  of  natural  living organisms takes
place by speed provides their maximum quantity. The quantity
corresponds to environment capacity,  to ecological rules of inner
uncontradiction,  of food correlation, of mutual adaptation, etc.
Their multiplication speed  always corresponds to food resources
quantity,  to preservation of their environment, to mutual adaptation
of living organisms. A mankind multiplication is without of
environment preservation, a man has not a natural limitation of his
multiplication.
   2. Religious row proved a "Rule of "hard" management a nature".
According to the rule a nature serves for satisfaction  of  mankind
needs. Ecological  rules  row  ( rule of "soft" management a nature,
rule of chained reactions of hard management a nature,  principle of
naturality)  forestall "soft" (restoring an ecological balance)
management may bring desired natural chained reactions and the
management more better than hard technical management.  But a mankind
transforms easily a nature by help of big technics.  Animals adapt
themselves to  changeable nature, a man adapt to herself a nature.
     3. Mankind thinks during many years according to a  "Rule  of
ideal future" descendants  will live more better and more clever.
According to principle of "event remoteness" a man thinks far
phenomenon is less essential and he can decide very well future
ecological problems.  But ecological laws forestall( "law of nature
system  development  at  the expense of  environment", etc.)  future
resources  situation will more strained up to ecological-economical
revolution. Ours descendants will pay more expensive for our
prodigality.
   4. During many years the mankind follows "Rule of  seeming
infinity of natural resources". An use of natural resources grows very
quickly. Technologies of all countries are  directed  to  unrenewal
resources. But there  are laws "natural resources limitation",
"reduce of energy efficiency of nature use",  "natural-resources
potential fall" forestall about all resources limitation, about more
complicated access to resource, etc.
   Does have the mankind a right so carelessly to spend natural
resources belong  not to him completely ( the resources belong also to
all future generations).  The mankind must  accumulates  resources  or
can spend with  following resumption.  But a man has not natural organ
for consumption limitation.
   5. "Rule of reaction delay to negative ecological situations". It
is very difficult to foretell consequences of nature transformation
actions (according to ecological "principle of  indefinity")  in  view
of eco-systems complexity  and of chained natural reactions
unprediction. Therefore reaction is prepared not usually and it
arrives (for example, reaction on reduction of ozone stratum thick .
Usually people would not think about future troubles.  A  man  also
has not sometimes necessary organs for warning (for example,  organ of
radioactivity increase), and there is not sometimes necessary
information about future negative situations. It increase ecological
situation.
   6. The mankind  interfered  in  nature constantly (cities and
towns, industry and agriculture,  etc.) and acted by "Rule of long
artificial change of  ecological  components".  A man recasted "hard"
a nature by his temporary needs and changed ecological components. But
very important laws   ("inner   dynamic   balance",   "biogenic
migration   of atoms", "physical-chemical unity of living matter")
talk about existence  eco-systems impossibility by artificial create
want or superfluity even though one ecological components (they
provide for matters circulation and energy stream going - water,
atmosphere, energy, soil with living organisms,  etc.).  A long change
of ecological components  may bring to sudden catastrophe.
   7. People can not forecast firmly consequences of  big
interference in nature  and  acted  in according of "Rule of
incomplete information use" by decisions taking.  Even developed
countries  make  elementary economical and  ecological
substantiation's by decisions acceptance for natural resources use.
   Third law  by B.  Commoner talks about getting impossibility of
objective information about nature functions and its mechanic. " A
nature knows better" and man must previously research a problem with
natural processes dynamic calculation.
   8. The mankind thought always nature resources are free of charge
and so "Rule of insolvent mankind" was created (Rule of maximum
removal of payment term  for seized natural resources).  Fourth law by
B. Commoner forecast about compensate necessity of all things was took
from global eco-system by help of human labour. It is inevitably.
The mankind must return very much : the people lost about half
productive arable land; the mankind use annual energy bearers was
accumulated during 1 million years.
     9. "Rule of inner contradiction" is very unlogical  rule  for
"homo sapiens".  An  activity of all kinds in natural eco-systems
supports the eco-systems as their environment according to rule of
"inner  uncontradiction".  Natural  species  can  not destroy their
environment. Mankind activity ruins environment in regional and global
scales. There  is  of  principle  contradiction  between  the
inhabitants  interests(increase of production and use) and the nature
interests (reduce of antropogenic influence).
   10. A wish quick to get effective results by economical activity
resulted  in  Rule of quick getting of results("Rule of impatience").
A man supposes to get usually necessary results during short  time
(1-2 years), or project is not proved economical.
   First successes in nature use are short according  to  principle
of "deceptive well-being",  objective  result may be reached during
10-30 years by long interaction of natural  and  antropogenic
factors.  Attempts to hasten a nature are uselessly according to law
of "successive delay";  at first there is effect,  but then
self-regulation begins to act and bio-production falls.
   11. Constantly increase of needs results in appearance of "Rule of
level needs excess ("Ecological egoism"). Man needs in developed
countries begin to exceed ecology admissible middle level for all
mankind. The needs are fasten by producer of goods and  services  and
are  not proved by ecology laws. Needs satisfaction is very unevenly
on planet.
   There are not in nature species needs was not limited  by
environment (according to law of eco-system development at the expense
of environment"). But inhabitants of developed countries  want  not
to reduce needs level may be not reached for all planet mankind.
   12. A prodigal use of nature resources  brought  to  realisation
of "Rule of unproductive use of natural resources".  There is in
nature a consumption of renewal recourses only and nature remade a
basic  part of needs  waste  without environment pollution.  A man
consumes nature resources very ineffectively and throw out waste
mass.  The  prodigal mankind uses only 2% from got resources and 98%
throws out.
   13. The mankind expands constantly their  environment  according
to "Rule of antropogenic expansion". Every species occupies in nature
their ecological niche. Consequences of antropogenic liberation may be
dangerously: more dangerous kinds may take a free niche.
Antropogenic expansion brings to breaks in "global  life  network"
(law of  "physical-chemical  unity  of  living matter")" and reduces
kinds biodiversity. It may challenge mass reproduction of new
dangerous organisms. A man don't occupy strange ecological niches to
provide biosphere stability.
   14. "Rule of  dissipation energy increase" is very injudicious
rule. Ecological principle of "direction of evolution"  forestalls
development direction  must  guarantee  minimum  of  energy
dissipation.  Law "energy maximisation" talks that system may survive
promotes to energy entrance and uses it more effective, accumulates
high quality energy.
   A man  spends more and more energy for unit production getting from
nature systems (approximately 60 times as more than  for  far
ancestors). Basic  part  (about 2/3) of all energy became not to
consumers. Dissipated energy pollutes an atmosphere.
   15. Aggression in people wars increased constantly.  It allow to
separate a "Rule of aggression increase".  There are not in nature
useful and harmful kinds (rule of "interadaptation").  All kinds are
one whole. A man annihilates similar to him and other kinds in mass
quantity.
   16. A man  perfect  during hundreds years his weapons of mass
defeat to accordance "Rule of excessive efficiency of attack weapons".
Natural attack and defence organs (tusks, claws, a poison, an armour,
etc.) are effective  only by defence or attack to small quantity of
animals. Their efficiency has humane principle for nature. A man
created a huge quantity of  very effective weapons are not proved by
ecological norms may annihilate all living organisms frequently.
   17. Many years mankind thought about ideal "pink" future  and
acted by "Rule of future unforesight". It is apparently a basic rule
of mankind development. A future may be not foresaw accordance to any
ecological  laws in view of exceptional complexity of
antropogenic-natural systems.  But existing results of interaction
between man  and  nature allow  to foresee nearest future.  This
unsuccessful interaction bring to rise of global ecological problems
instead regional problems.
   I'm of the opinion that new ecological rules of mankind development
must be  learned and must be proposed to people for use in their
actions. New ecological rules must forestall about possible negative
consequences of  unecological  activity.  For example new ecological
commandments may be added to Bible 10 commandments:  "  11.  Respect
and don't  destroy  a nature;  you are a part of nature.  12. Give
back all things took from nature and leave for descendants. 13.
Restore a broken nature. 14. All natural living organisms are equally.
   New ecological sins resulted to global ecological problems  may  be
added to Bibles sins:  8. Nature pollution. 9. Ecological egoism
(consumption above ecological admissible level for all mankind). 10.
Unlimited reproduction.
                 Very truly :   Alexandr Tetior
1
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Re: This is impossible
Edmond Wollmann
Mon, 27 Jan 1997 15:59:10 -0800
Tim Gillespie wrote:
> Edmond Wollmann wrote:
 [edited]
> > Irrelevant. The only way that chromosomal or genetic variations occur is
> > theoretically (one) through cosmic rays (Astrology) causing mutation or
> > (two) through natural selection. There are not any selective
> > environmental structures divergent enough to "cause" us to have
> > developed huge brains that we have-nor to become bi-pedal. And there are
> > no recognizable cosmic rays at this point (other than those responsible
> > for albinism) that can account for any genetic mutation of an
> > appreciable degree.
> It is my policy to stay out of these conversations, but I did want to
> point out some factual discrepancies here. Genetic mutations occur for a
> variety or reasons. I will address those due to radiation. We are
> exposed to two types of naturally occurring radiation: cosmic and
> terrestrial. Lets look at cosmic first. Typically we are exposed to two
> types of cosmic radiation, neutrons and heavy ions. The neutrons pass
> right through the atmosphere into us, while the heavy ions interact with
> the atmosphere creating high energy photons and electrons (and
> positrons). None of these are the cause for albinism. Albinism is a
> heriditary trait.
You are speaking of SOME forms of cosmic rays. We just had several
satellites knocked out by a blast of solar wind -we ARE not sure of all
these rays as you are falsely tryin to interject here.
I should have specified CERTAIN types have been linked-I am well aware
of the Hardy-Weinberg formula. Either way it is STILL irrelevant to my
argument. There are forms of albinism that have been linked to cosmic
rays-I discussed this directly with a professor of it otherwise I would
not have made a statement that I know nothing about. The studies are
available.
Edited waste of time explanations.
> All of these sources of radiation add up to contribute about 360
> millirem of dose annually per person. Although this is not a large dose,
> it is significant. The chances of this dose causing a genetic mutation
> is a single person in a year are remote. However, the chances of this
> dose causing a mutation (or mutations) in millions of organisms over
> millions of years is virtual certainty.
How does time have anything to do with it? Either it causes a mutation
or it doesn't. A mutation can occur just by chromosomes crossing over
NOW in a second. Cosmic rays HAVE been linked to certain types of
albanisim and as soon as I can find the study where I read it I will
post it.
> The above paragraph is rife with
> inconsistencies and fiction that I personally am aware of.
Boy and you think I am jumping to conclusions-your right you really
shouldn't jump into these things.
> I do not have
> particular knowledge about the other information in this post (nor do I
> really care), but considering how wrong he is about the things I DO know
> about, I find it all suspect and caution others to view it with
> suspicion.
You are commiting a fallacy of hasty generalization (followed by a
slippery slope) here-the argument which you are taking specifics from,
is that the evolution of humanoids in 3 million years is not possible
based on available postulates and KNOWN causes-if we can call them
such-of it. Your discussion of "radiation" is basically irrelevant.
UNLESS you can prove that enough mutation-and the reasons for it can
cause Bi-pedal development, venous radiator development, and the size of
brain and configuration of it from that data-which in your
statement-shows none of this. 
For a bunch of armchair scientists and archaeologists arguing against my
OBSERVATIONS not one of you even knows what a venous radiator is! And
this is central (along with a few other key details) to any knowledge of
the rapidity which humans have evolved-until one of you can identify
THAT I would suggest that your arguments are rife with red herrings and
old knowledge.
-- 
Edmond H. Wollmann P.M.A.F.A.                       
© 1996 Astrological Consulting/Altair Publications
http://home.aol.com/ewollmann
PO Box 221000 San Diego, CA. 92192-1000
(619)453-2342  e-mail wollmann@mail.sdsu.edu
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Re: Whaling Action Alert: Urge Clinton to Sanction Canada for Pirate Whaling
David Eitelbach
28 Jan 1997 00:07:11 GMT
Stephen Best (sbest@inforamp.net) wrote:
> Anders Jelmert  wrote:
> >	How could you expect an organisation to survive, which have
> >	neglected its own scientific committee, and so profoundly 
> >	has defied it's own _raison d'etre_ ?
> The Int'l Whaling Commission (IWC) never neglects its own
> scientific committee.
Sure it does! 
You're playing with words, verging on a fallacy of equivocation.  
Dr. Hammond, the head of the Scientific Committee, seemed to feel
the Scientific Committee had been plenty neglected.  I'll attach his
letter of resignation at the end so the readers can decide for themselves....
> It takes advice from the committee and considers that along with
> other information, the objectives of the parties, etc. and then
> formulates a position or recommendation, which the parties to the
> treaty then vote on and either accept or reject.  The scientfic
> committee of the IWC provides advice; it is not the decision making
> body.
The IWC *is* supposed to listen to its Scientific Committee. It has
the Scientific Committee just for that reason -- to provide the
scientific basis for decision making that the IWC charter says should
be the basis for decision making. Here's what the founding charter of
the International Whaling Commission (IWC) says in the copy at:
:
            * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
1. The Commission may amend from time to time the provisions of the
Schedule by adopting regulations with respect to the conservation and
utilization of whale resources, fixing (a) .....
[...]
2. These amendments of the Schedule
   (a) shall be such as are necessary to carry out the objectives
       and purposes of this Convention and to provide for the
       conservation, development, and optimum utilization of the
       whale resources;           ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
       ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
==>(b) shall be based on scientific findings;
       ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
            * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Sure looks to me they're supposed to listen to their Scientific
Committee. And, that they did not do so...
=============BEGIN LETTER OF RESIGNATION===========================
     The letter of resignation from the Chairman of the
     Scientific Committee of the International Whaling
     Commission (IWC), Dr. Philip Hammond, UK, 26. May 1992.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
    Dr. R. Gambell
    Secretary IWC
    The Red House
    Stations Road, Histon
    CAMBRIDGE CB4 4NP
    Dear Ray, 
    As you know I have been an active member of the Scientific
Committee since 1981, chairing various working groups and
sub-committees and being elected vice-chairman in 1988.  When I was
elected Chairman in 1991, the highest priority for the Committee was
to complete the Revised Management Procedure (RMP..ed. com.). By that
time it had long been recognised that the NMP (New Management
Procedure adapted in 1974 ..ed. com.) was unworkable so that,
although there was a management procedure defined in the Schedule,
the Commission effectively had no mechanism in place for the
management of commercial whaling, an unacceptable situation for an
international organisation with such a mandate. It was my job to
guide the Scientific Committee to finalise the RMP as soon as
possible.
    In 1992, the Committee unanimously recommended the adoption of
the draft specification for the RMP, whilst recognising that work
remained to be done on documentation of the computer programs, on
specifying minimum standards for data required for the RMP, and on
outlining guidelines for conducting surveys and analysing data from
them. In a resolution, the Commission accepted the draft
specifications, thus recognising that the RMP should replace the NMP,
and highlighted these other aspects which needed agreement before
umbrella Revised Management Scheme could be completed.
    This year, the Scientific Committee completed its part of that
work and unanimously recommended it to the Commission for adoption
and endorsement. Although a minority view had been expressed stating
that the RMS required further monitoring than that implicit in the
RMP itself, the Scientific Committee even agreed unanimously on other
data which should be required under the RMS.  The question of whether
or not monitoring of the RMP's performance should be a minimum
requirement of the RMS was, therefore, elevated to a policy decision
for the Commission to make; the practical scientific implications had
already been dealt with.
    Thus one of the most interesting and potentially far-reaching
chapters in the science of natural resource management came to a
conclusion. The Commission could now put in place a mechanism for the
safe management of commercial whaling, regardless of whether or not
the "moratorium" was lifted.
    The reality was somewhat different. At the Commission meeting,
the work of the Scientific Committee was praised and acknowledged by
several delegations to be complete, but it remained unadopted. The
future for this unique piece of work, for which the Commission had
been waiting for many years, was left in the air. This has left the
Commission in the incongruous position of having accepted the draft
specifications of the RMP but having neither accepted nor adopted the
final version.
    Of course, the reasons for this were nothing to do with science.
Although, despite the unanimity of the Scientific Committee's
recommendation, some Commissioners used selective quotations out of
context from the Committee's report to justify not adopting the RMP
on "scientific" grounds.
    But the matter of substance is, what is the point of having a
Scientific Committee if its unanimous recommendations on a matter of
primary importance are treated with such contempt? And in what
position does this leave the Chairman?
    I have come to the conclusion that I can no longer justify to
myself being the organiser of and spokesman for a Committee whose
work is held in such disregard by the body to which it is
responsible. Nor can I justify asking other members of the Committee
to spend their valuable time working hard during the year and even
harder at annual meetings knowing how the results of this work may be
treated. And I cannot justify to my employer spending a significant
amount of my own time on such an unproductive end.
    I am left with no alternative, therefore, but to resign as
Chairman of the Scientific Committee. 
    The morale of the Scientific Committee is lower than at any other
time in my experience and I think many members will understand my
position. I hope that some Commissioners will, too.
    I am, of course, prepared to continue as Chairman for a short
time until the new Chairman is able to take over and to help, if
needed, in the development of the work plan for the coming year.
    I plan to maintain my scientific participation in the work of the
Committee and I am willing to continue as Convenor of the Steering
Group on management procedures if the new Chairman so desires.
    Yours sincerely, 
    Philip Hammond 
====================END INCLUDED LETTER OF RESIGNATION===============
    from: 
--
David Eitelbach
dseitel@spams.r.us.com
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Re: Global warming/climate change: a new appoach
Hugh Easton
Mon, 27 Jan 97 03:01:04 GMT
In article <5c8kse$29k@spool.cs.wisc.edu>
           tobis@scram.ssec.wisc.edu "Michael Tobis" writes:
> 
> Dan Evens (dan.evens@hydro.on.ca) wrote:
> : Hugh Easton wrote:
> : > One of the possible effects - not necessarily the worst - of a large
> : > increase in global temperatures is the breakup of the Antarctic ice cap.
> 
> : What global temperature increase would be required for this?
> 
> Obviously, no *global* change in particular is necessary. How much
> temperature increase would be required at the fringe of Antarctica is
> another matter. Even how much temperature change locally is still the
> wrong question - the right question is how much temperature change
> for how long. It isn't entirely clear that the West Antarctic glacier
> isn't unstable *already*, but the time scale of the natural background cooling
> might have sufficed to keep it intact. Since we are now almost certainly
> (despite various specious arguments) overriding this cooling, the loss of
> a large chunk of Antarctic ice is entirely plausible. 
> 
> On the other hand, it appears to be implausible on the time scales
> of interest to political types - if this happens it's likely to take
> a few centuries. 
Can you remember back to the news reports a couple of years ago, when the
Larsen ice shelf disintegrated? There was apparently a team of scientists
working nearby, when without warning a 40 mile long crack in the ice opened 
up in front of them. Within the space of a week a large part of the ice
shelf had broken off, forming a huge iceberg. Catastrophic disintegration
events involving large volumes of ice do not generally give much advance
warning that anything is amiss. For instance, the recent news about 300 ice 
fishers trapped on a lake when the ice they were standing on broke away from 
the shore. 
If I remember correctly, the Larsen ice shelf was several hundred metres 
thick, and yet it already warmed enough to disintegrate. How much longer
before the Antarctic icecap itself goes the same way? I think several 
centuries is being very optimistic, particularly if the CO2 level is allowed 
to rise as high as 540 ppm (I think the latest estimates are that this level 
will be reached around the year 2025, if current trends continue).
(snip)
> 
> Regarding the correlation between CO2 and temperature over the glacial
> cycle, it's not news. It's well established, in fact, and is illustrated
> in an alarming (but in my opinion appropriate) way in VP Gore's book
> "Earth in the Balance". 
> 
> There are caveats, though. 
> 
> We know with virtual certainty that the glacial cycle is synchronized 
> to long-period variations in the earth's orbit. Accordingly, the increase in
> CO2 must have been triggerred in some way by those variations, almost certainly
> through a mechanism involving temperature increases. 
The orbital changes do not affect the total amount of sunlight arriving at
the Earth, what they do affect is its distribution between low, mid and 
high latitudes. Warm, intergalcial periods such as the one we are in now 
occur when the quota reaching high (polar) latitudes is particularly 
generous, while the ice ages occur when the poles receive less sunlight.
Climatologists have concentrated on the reduced polar sunlight as the
cause of the ice ages.
However, less sunlight in polar regions means more in low and mid latitudes, 
since the total amount reaching the Earth is constant. Most plant life is 
found at low and mid latitudes, and higher light levels are known to 
increase the rate of photosynthesis (and thus removal of CO2 from the 
atmosphere). Therefore, a plausible mechanism exists which can explain how
orbital changes could directly affect the CO2 level without involving
temperature changes. The ice ages could be entirely a side effect of a 
reduced CO2 level, brought about by increased photosynthesis.
> Furthermore, there are
> indications in the record that some periods of temperature increase preceded
> the comparable CO2 rise slightly. (More precisely, had a slight phase lead -
> the periods of increase do overlap.) 
> 
I have just updated the "methods used" page on my web site 
(ie http://www.daflight.demon.co.uk/science/methods.htm)
to show the effects of plotting slightly older and more recent temperature
values against the CO2 data. I thought that, if temperature changes were 
occurring before the CO2 changes, by using temperature data that was 
slightly older (1000 years in this case) the correlation between temperature
and CO2 level should be improved. Conversely, if the CO2 changes were 
occurring first then a graph plotted using temperature data 1000 years more
recent than the CO2 data should show the improved correlation. Both these 
graphs can now be viewed at the above URL, and one does indeed show a much 
better correlation than the other. 
> From this, we may conclude that Mr. Easton's claims of *imminent* large
> temperature rise are overdrawn. However, it is a serious mistake to conclude
> that the paleoclimate evidence weighs in on the side of very small greenhouse
> gas sensitivity.
> 
> The main reason for this is that the solar forcing alone is unable to account 
> for the temperature variation of the glacial cycle absent a greenhouse effect
>  forcing.
> (Similar comments may be made for the still warmer epochs of the more distant
>  past,
> which correlate with high CO2 periods). This is true both for simple
>  back-of-envelope
> type calculations as well as for full GCM calculations.
> 
> The obvious conclusion is that some sort of temperature-mediated biogeochemical
> feedback exacerbates the orbitally forced glacial cycle. Until we identify this
> mechanism, it isn't clear whether it will operate if the warming is trigerred
> by greenhouse forcing without the astronomical component. Perhaps the higher
> concentrations of CO2 will shift the equilibrium such that this feedback
>  mechanism
> is slowed or even reversed, but perhaps not. If the feedback remains
>  operational,
> our long range predictions of the CO2 trajectory may be serious underestimates,
> and matters may be worse than anticipated.
The bottom line is that all the evidence points to CO2 level being the single
largest factor determining how warm the Earth is. This doesn't just apply
to the Vostok ice core record, it also applies to the much warmer Cretaceous
climate (fossilised dinosaurs have been recovered from sites which at that 
time were very near the poles, and appear to have been covered with forests). 
This is despite the fact that the sun gave off less heat during the 
Cretaceous era than it does now. 
The Vostok ice core data shows, not just how closely global average 
temperature is associated with CO2 level, but how large a temperature change 
can be expected from a given change in CO2 level. This makes it ideal for
predicting the effects of current and projected increases in CO2 level. My 
analysis of this data is available at:
     http://www.daflight.demon.co.uk/science/index.htm
--
Hugh Easton                             
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Re: Whaling Action Alert: Urge Clinton to Sanction Canada for Pirate Whaling
David Eitelbach
28 Jan 1997 00:22:16 GMT
Stephen Best (sbest@inforamp.net) wrote:
> Anders Jelmert  wrote:
> 	
> >	Why do you have the impression that IWC(The whaling Commission)in 
> >	 fact would¨have granted the Canadians anything?? 
> Bowhead whales, like many marine and other species, migrate from
> one national jurisdiction to another.  This trans-national fact is a
> feature of many environmental issues.  Responsible nations,
> responsible diplomats and politicians have tried to create a
> framework of treaties and conventions to address this fact and
> provide fair and equitable solutions.  Most reasonable people reject
> the idea that exploitation of natural resources ought to go back to
> the days of a raid on the commons, which is what Canadian whaling is
> all about.
Your engaging platitudes didn't address Anders' question. The fact
that the IWC has been essentially co-opted by animal advocacy
organizations much like your own, is arguably contributing more to
the Tragedy of the Commons you invoke and which we all want to avoid.
This is because some anti-whalers are piggy, and want it ALL their own
way, and are willing to subvert the purpose of the IWC as set forth in
its charter, easily viewable and verifiable on the web at:

If these stone-walling antics keep up, we'll lose the IWC and what
leverage we have over the whalers. That will enhance the chance of a
raid on the commons, not diminish it. 
Cooperation is what's needed. You want Canada sent down a blind path
so no bowheads will be taken because you're just against hunting, period.
Canada isn't going to get a quota for bowheads from the IWC. Not only
do they not belong, but even the more powerful (if less civilized :-))
United States withdrew its request for a grey whale quota for the
Makah tribe of Washington state.
--
David Eitelbach
dseitel@spams.r.us.com
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Re: Reintroducing the grizzly to California
chrisclarke@igc.apc.org (Chris Clarke)
Mon, 27 Jan 1997 18:09:06 +0100
In article <5civ3u$oe2@ds2.acs.ucalgary.ca>,
powlesla@freenet.calgary.ab.ca (Jim B. Powlesland) wrote:
> In article <32EBF589.137C@pacbell.net>,
> Mike Vandeman   wrote:
> 
> > I don't know if ANYONE, human or animal, has absolute "rights". But we
> > are 98% genetically IDENTICAL with a chimpanzee, so there aren't much
> > grounds for saying that we have rights and they have none! I think that
> > IF we have rights, THEN wildlife have the same rights. It is the only
> > logical position. 
> 
> ROTFL!!! What nonsense. I take it you flunked out of Logic class, 
> Vandeman. 
> 
> The predator Homo sapiens has a set of adaptive advantages that are an
> expression of the functional capacities of our greatly enlarged cerebral
> cortex. These advantages include our capacity to reason, to develop and
> use languages, to think creatively and in the abstract, etc. It does not
> matter to what extent these higher intellectual functions may be shared,
> in part, by a few other nonhuman species. The fact that we are the only
> species that has all of these capacities and we use them to create our
> overwhelming technology makes us superior to any other animal on Earth. By
> equating a human being with a labratory rat, you are demeaning humans.
> 
The pachyderm Loxodonta africana has a set of adaptive advantages that are an
expression of the functional capacities of our greatly enlarged nose and
upper lip. These advantages include our capacity to snorkel, to pick
peanuts off the ground without stooping, to trumpet mating songs across
the savanna, to throw feces at zoo visitors, etc. It does not matter to
what extent these higher prehensile functions may be shared, in part, by a
few other nonelephant species. The fact that we are the only species that
has all of these capacities and we use them to uproot acacia trees makes
us superior to any other animal on Earth. By equating an elephant with a
human being, you are demeaning elephants.
[paraphrased from: J. Powlesland, /A Specious and Essentially Religious
Argument that Displays Ignorance of Current Thinking in Evolutionary
Biology, Even Though Mike Vandeman Isn't Any Better/, No Hope For
Communication Press, 1997.]
-- 
Chris Clarke
Editor
Terrain, Northern California's 
Environmental Magazine
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Re: Black Bears
donb@rational.com (Don Baccus)
28 Jan 1997 00:29:59 GMT
In article <19970126211600.QAA18895@ladder01.news.aol.com>,
NATURLRUSH  wrote:
>Black Bears are definitly not human killers.  Like you said the only
>problem that  someone can encounter is when the mother black bear is with
>its cubs.
Strangely, black bear moms are not those which are responsible for human
fatalities due to attacks by black bear in most circumstances.  Predatory
attacks are.  Note that these are very, very, very (VERY!) rare however.
Predation is a relatively rare cause for fatalities due to attacks by
grizzlies.
This may seem counter-intuitive but really isn't.  Black bears are
essentially wimps, and when attacking due to feeling threatened usually
bluff and rarely follow through.  Thus there are very few instances
of fatalities due to black bear moms with cubs, or any black bear with
a food source (carcass or whatever), feeling threatened.  A griz in
such scenarios, though, is very unpredictable and very dangerous.
On the other hand, an extremely small proportion of black and grizzly
bears will attempt a predatory attack on a human in extremely unusual
circumstances.  It just happens that the likelihood of a black bear
killing as a result of a perception of threat leads to fewer fatalities
tnan those which predate.  In the case of grizzlies, fatalities due to
attacks by "threatened" bears happen frequently enough to outnumber those
due to predation.
Of course, in all cases we're speaking of small numbers, and there is no
doubt that the grizzly is far more dangerous.
For more information on this subject, I suggest Stephen Herrero's
"Bear Attacks: Their Cause & Prevention".  He's a leading bear researcher
and, among other things, has studied every documented case of bear-caused
fatalities in the US & Canada.
--
- Don Baccus, Portland OR 
  Nature photos, site guides, and other goodies at
  (NEW) http://donb.photo.net
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Re: This is impossible
"Eric Lucas"
28 Jan 1997 00:34:15 GMT
Tom Potter  wrote in article
<5cfsdu$7bs@sjx-ixn7.ix.netcom.com>...
> 
> >        Erik Max Francis, &tSftDotIotE; / email:  max@alcyone.com
> >           "Gods are born and die, / but the atom endures."
> >                                  / (Alexander Chase)
> 
> I have to take exception to your sig.
> All objects, including atoms, are just
> aggregates of properties.
> 
> The only things that "endure" are harmonic
> amounts of properties like charge,
> baryon number, hypercharge and spin.
Now wait a minute.  Your assertion is that atoms are nothing but an
aggregate of a bunch of observable properties.  Then, substituting this in
his .sig basically says "... the aggregate of properties that we call an
atom, endures."  Then you say "The only things that endure are ...
properties."  Your assertion is entirely consistent with his .sig, if you
ask me, and you have nothing with which to take exception.
	Eric Lucas
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Re: This is impossible
"Bruce C. Fielder"
Mon, 27 Jan 1997 19:16:33 -0600
(ridiculous amount of arguement deleted)
This discussion seems to be getting heated.
I'm jumping in at the end here, but I don't understand how the source of
a mutation can be linked to any mutation factor, except perhaps by
probability.
I'm alwaqys willing to learn though, and so if you can find the article,
I will be most inerested in reading it.
[Just because the discussion is getting heated, I'll mention that my use
of the word "ridiculous" above referred to the number of lines I
deleted, not to any arguement removed]
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Re: Whaling Action Alert: Urge Clinton to Sanction Canada for Pirate Whaling
David Eitelbach
27 Jan 1997 21:49:43 GMT
In article <32ee14fe.27982987@news1.on.sympatico.ca>, on Mon, 27 Jan 1997
21:07:48 GMT, Stephen Best (sbest@inforamp.net) wrote:
> pls.see.addr@my.sig (Bill Gross) wrote:
> >Only if Cuba remains a
> >Communist Nation can we enjoy a stirling example of how to abuse
> >people.  We owe you a debt of gratitude.
> Is this off the topic of Pelly amendment sanctions over Canadian
> whaling policy or what!
Yes.
> Like Iran, like Nicaragua, like Viet Nam, Cuba is a bastard child
> of America.
Yes.
> The Castro and Guevara led Communist revolution on New Years day
> 1959 happened because of Batista's corrupt and authoritarian regime,
> a regime which was propped up and only made possible by America.
> America making common cause with corrupt and brutal dictators like
> Batista, like the Shah, like Somoza to not only deny but also crush
> the civil and economic rights of ordinary people has created the
> conditions for many revolutions and much misery.
> American foreign policy that serves America's corporate and
> economic objectives at the expense of local peoples' human rights
> and economic aspirations is the norm. [...]
YES!
Allow me to give a potent and grisly example:
    "For many years, repression, torture and murder were carried
    out in El Salvador by dictators installed and supported by our
    government, a matter of no interest here. The story was 
    virtually never covered. By the late 1970s, however, the US
    government began to be concerned about a couple of things.
    "One was that Somoza, the dictator of Nicaragua, was losing
    control. The US was losing a major base for its exercise of
    force in the region. A second danger was even more threatening.
    In El Salvador in the 1970s, there was a growth of what were
    called 'popular organizations' -- peasant associations, 
    cooperatives, unions, Church-based Bible study groups that
    evolved into self-help groups, etc. That raised the threat
    of democracy.
    "In February, 1980, the Archbishop of El Salvador, Oscar Romero,
    sent a letter to President Carter in which he begged him not to
    send military aid to the junta that ran the country. He said
    such aid would be used to 'sharpen injustice and repression
    against the people's organizations' which were struggling 'for
    respect for their most basic human rights' (hardly news to 
    Washington, needless to say).
    "A few weeks later, Archbishop Romero was assassinated while
    saying a mass. The neo-Nazi Roberto d'Aubisson is generally
    assumed to be responsible for this assassination (among
    countless other atrocities). D'Aubisson was 'leader-for-life'
    of the ARENA party, which now governs El Salvador; members of
    the party like current Salvadoran president Alfredo Cristiani,
    had to take a blood oath of loyalty to him.
    "Thousands of peasants and urban poor took part in a commemorative
    mass a decade later, along with many foreign bishops, but the
    US was notable by its absence. The Salvadoran Church formally
    proposed Romero for sainthood.
    "All of this passed with scarcely a mention in the country 
    that funded and trained Romero's assassins. The _New York 
    Times_, the 'newspaper of record,' published no editorial on
    the assassination when it occurred or in the years that
    followed, and no editorial or news report on the commemoration.
    "On March 7, 1980, two weeks before the assassination, a stage
    of siege had been instituted in El Salvador, and the war against
    the population began in force (with continued US support and
    involvement). The first major attack was a big massacre at the
    Rio Sampul, a coordinated military operation of the Honduran
    and Salvadoran armies in which at least 600 people were butchered.
    Infants were cut to pieces with machetes, and women were tortured
    and drowned. Pieces of bodies were found in the river for days
    afterwards. There were church observers, so the information
    came out immediately, but the US media didn't think it was
    worth reporting.
    "Peasants were the main victims of this war, along with labor
    organizers, students, priests, or anyone suspected of working
    for the interests of the people. In Carter's last year, 1980, 
    the death toll reached about 10,000, rising to about 13,000 for
    1981 as the Reaganites took command.
    "In October 1980, the new archbishop condemned the 'war of
    extermination and genocide against a defenseless civilian
    population' waged by the security forces. Two months later they
    were hailed for their 'valiant service alongside the people
    against subversion' by the favorite US 'moderate,' Jose Napoleon
    Duarte, as he was appointed civilian president of the junta.
    "The role of the 'moderate' Duarte was to provide a fig leaf for
    the military rulers and ensure them a continuing flow of US 
    funding after the armed forces had raped and murdered four
    churchwomen from the US. That had aroused some interest here:
    slaughtering Salvadorans is one thing, but raping and killing
    American nuns is a definite PR [public relations] mistake. The
    media evaded and downplayed the story, following the lead of the
    Carter Administration and its investigative commission.
    "The incoming Reaganites went much further, seeking to justify
    the atrocity, notably Secretary of State Alexander Haig and UN
    ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick. But it was still deemed worthwhile
    to have a show trial a few years later, while exculpating the
    murderous junta -- and, of course, the paymaster.
    "The independent newspapers in El Salvador, which might have 
    reported these atrocities, had been destroyed. Although they 
    were mainstream and pro-business, they were still too 
    undisciplined for the military's taste. The problem was taken
    care of in 1980-81, when the editor of one was murdered by the
    security forces; the other fled into exile. As usual, these
    events were considered too insignificant to merit more than
    a few words in US newspapers.
    "In November 1989, six Jesuit priests, their cook and his daughter,
    were murdered by the army. That same week, at least 28 other 
    Salvadoran civilians were murdered, including the head of a
    major union, the leader of an organization of university women,
    nine members of an Indian farming cooperative and ten
    university students.
    "The news wires carried a story by AP correspondent Douglas
    Grant Mine, reporting how soldiers had entered a working-class
    neighborhood in the capital city of San Salvador, captured six
    men, added a 14-year-old boy for good measure, then lined them
    all up against a wall and shot them. They 'were not priests or
    human rights campaigners,' Mine wrote, 'so their deaths have 
    gone largely unnoticed' -- as did his story.
    "The Jesuits were murdered by the Alacatl Battalion, an elite unit
    created, trained and equipped by the United States. It was formed
    in March 1981, when fifteen specialists in counterinsurgency were
    sent to El Salvador from the US Army School of Special Forces.
    From the start, the Battalion was engaged in mass murder. A US
    trainer described its soldiers as 'particularly ferocious....
    We've always had a hard time getting [them] to take prisoners
    instead of ears.'
    "In December 1981, the Battalion took part in an operation in
    which over a thousand civilians were killed in an orgy of murder,
    rape and burning. Later it was involved int he bombing of villages
    and murder of hundreds of civilians by shooting, drowning and
    other methods. The vast majority of victims were women, children
    and the elderly.
    "The Alacatl Battalion was being trained by US Special Forces
    shortly before murdering the Jesuits. This has been a pattern
    throughout the Battalion's existence -- some of its worst
    massacres have occurred when it was fresh from US training.
    "In another case, an admitted member of a Salvadoran death 
    squad associated with the Alacatl Battalion, Cesar Vielman Joya
    Martinez, detailed the involvement of US advisers and the
    Salvadoran government in death-squad activity. The Bush
    Administration has made every effort to silence him and ship him
    back to probably death in El Salvador, despite the pleas of 
    human rights organizations and request from Congress that his
    testimony be heard. (The treatment of the main witness to the
    assassination of the Jesuits was similar.)
    "The results of Salvadoran military training are graphically
    described in the Jesuit journal _America_ by Daniel Santiago,
    a Catholic priest working in El Salvador. He tells of a peasant
    woman who returned home one day to find her three children, her
    mother and her sister sitting around a table, each with its own
    decapitated head placed carefully on the table in front of the
    body, the hands arranged on top 'as if each body was stroking
    its own head.'
    "The assassins, from the Salvadoran National Guard, had found
    it hard to keep the head of an 18-month-old baby in place, so
    they nailed the hands on to it. A large plastic bowl filled with
    blood was tastefully displayed in the center of the table.
    "According to Reverend Santiago, macabre scenes of this kind
    aren't uncommon.
        "People are not just killed by death squad in El
        Salvador -- they are decapitated and then their
        heads are placed on pikes and used to dot the 
        landscape. Men are not just disemboweled by the
        Salvadoran Treasury Police; their severed genitalia
        are stuffed into their mouths. Salvadoran women
        are not just raped by the National Guard; their
        wombs are cut from their bodies and used to cover
        their faces. It is not enough to kill children; 
        they are dragged over barbed wire until the flesh
        falls from their bones, while parents are forced
        to watch.
    "Reverend Santiago goes on to point out that violence of this
    sort greatly increased when the Church began forming peasant 
    associations and self-help groups in an attempt to organize
    the poor.
    "By and large, our approach in El Salvador has been successful.
    The popular organizations have been decimated, just as 
    Archbishop Romero predicted. Tens of thousands have been
    slaughtered and more than a million have become refugees. This
    is one of the most sordid episodes in US history and it's got
    a lot of competition."
    --from: :
    --pp. 34-40 in _What Uncle Sam Really Wants_, by Noam Chomsky,
      1995, (Berkeley, California: Odonian Press) ISBN 1-989825-01-1.
      Noam Chomsky is a professor of linguistics at MIT.
Now that that's over, can we get back to the bowhead whaling?
--
David Eitelbach
dseitel@spams.r.us.com
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Release of GEO-1 (Global Environment Outlook-1) on the Internet
Linda Black
27 Jan 1997 09:45:39 -0800
GEO-1 (Global Environment Outlook-1)
UNEP's Global State of the Environment Report 1997
GEO-1 is based on an international participatory assessment process involving - 
- a global network of 20 collaborating centres of scientific excellence, 
- regional policy consultations, 
- four scientific working groups, 
- UN participation through the UN systemwide Earthwatch.
GEO-1 is published simultaneously on Internet via six UNEP Web servers
in Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland and USA to ensure
convenient access to this report.
GEO-1 is available at the following locations -
JAPAN
http://www-cger.niesgo.jp/geo1/
KENYA
http://www.unep.org/unep/eia/geo1/
MEXICO
http://www.rolac.unep.mx/geo1/
NORWAY
http://www.grida.no/geo1/
SWITZERLAND
http://www.grid.unep.ch/geo1/
USA
http://grid2.cr.usgs.gov/geo1/
Regards,
Linda Black
black@grid2.cr.usgs.gov
UNEP/GRID-Sioux Falls (http://grid2.cr.usgs.gov)
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