Newsgroup sci.geo.earthquakes 6021

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>EDWARD ZWOLAN wrote:
>> 
>> Hello everyone,
>> 
>> My question is:  Is it possible for a properly working seismograph not to
>> record a small event occuring directly under the measuring equipment?
>> 
>> Example: Very shallow quake whose epicentre is right underneath a
>> seismograph.
>> 
>> This Wednesday many Las Vegans reported an event of extremely short
>> duration.  Something like a sudden boom from underneath the ground.
>> Absolutely no waving sensation, no prolonged shaking- nothing of the usual
>> signs of an earhtquake.  The University of Nevada, Las Vegas seismograph
>> registered nothing!
UNLV does not run a seismograph network, though they do have some display
seismographs.  I do not recall the physical location of the sensors that the
seismographs are displaying, but it is possible they are being telemetered
from a distant location.  Also, did you look at the seismograph there, or is
this an assumption from news reports, or some report from somebody else? 
Non-seismologists frequently misread hallway displays, so it is possible
this was on the records being examined.
I haven't seen the original post--maybe this was late on 10/21?  (Yes, I
know, that was a Monday) There was a M3.7 northwest of Vegas that would have
been quite likely to have been felt (from UNR Seismo Lab) (note UTC was 7 hours
ahead of Vegas local time on 10/22, so this was at 9:15 pm on 10/21 PDT):
 DATE-(UTC)-TIME   LAT    LON      DEP   MAG    COMMENTS
yy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss   deg.   deg.    km
96/10/22 04:15:12  36.17N 115.17W   6.5 3.7Md   3.4 km  NW of LAS_VEGAS
you can check UNR's locations at http://quake.unr.edu/
Given that this is within Las Vegas and fairly shallow, it is quite
probable that there have been some aftershocks that would be felt by
residents but too small for the regional network to locate.
The Las Vegas area is not monitored by a regional network quite the
way most of California is; nearly all the stations in the region are to the 
northwest (they were put in place for monitoring nukes 
originally and now are mainly for evaluating Yucca Mtn).  That network is
run by Nevada-Reno.  Thus there would not have been any report in any
earthquake catalog from a *smaller* event in the area.  Something as small
as a M2.5 or so might escape detection by the regional network but still be
felt.  Usually reports of such ground motion to the NEIC produce a bit more
thorough examination of the nearest seismic records (hence we occasionally
see very small EQs in Colorado in the QED listings from the USGS/NEIC).
There are occasional events that are not seismic in origin that can produce
effects described, though usually you also hear something (sonic booms actually
put some energy into the ground, etc.).  Real motion of the ground will
*definitely* be recorded by a seismometer, and if you can feel it, it will
be very large.
>> 
>> As I was sitting in front of my computer at the time, the monitor sudenly
>> jerked like if someone kicked the desk from underneath.  That was it!
>> Nothing else, whatsoever!  I am not superstitious, but for a moment I
>> thought this to be a devilish manifestation, of some sort.
If you are very close to an EQ, the pulse will be quite sharp and quite
short.  With distance the energy spreads out in time, largely because of the
difference in travel times of compressional, shear, and surface waves but
also because of earth structure.  I've been near quite a few small to medium
earthquakes and
it often feels like somebody just slapped the building I was in; in general,
you have to be really close for this kind of sensation (within 10 km or so).
>> 
>> I have a 50 inch long string hanging from the ceiling nearby (there is a
>> weight attached to its end, and it serves as a crude, but reliable earth
>> motion detector) -it didn't swing a bit.
I suspect the pendulum has a response to much lower frequencies.  It probably
has been useful in the past because most EQs in the region are larger than
this thing and farther away.  This means that most of the energy reaching
Las Vegas was coming in a lower frequencies (due to earth attenuation and the
difference in the spectrum of the source), frequencies where the pendulum
would be more sensitive than human perception.
Craig Jones                                    cjones@mantle.colorado.edu
      Research Associate, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder
WWW: http://cires.colorado.edu/people/jones.craig/CHJ_home.html

Try the Museum of the City of San Francisco website at:
http://www.sfmuseum.org/
Best of Luck,
Scott Reuter
In article <55j1ga$8fj@ionews.ionet.net>, robyork@ionet.net (rob york) wrote:
> can anyone assist us in finding info regarding the 1906 quake in San 
> Francisco. The main need here is the rebuilding efforts. Pictures are the 
> most desired for a before and after report.
Exhibit Safety Services - Museum quality earthquake protection for works of art and antiques - http://home.earthlink.net/~reuter/ 

Hi... I am trying to find information that could tell me about the
explanations provided, at the time in hisotry, for the occurance of
earthquakes for many famous historic earthquakes... Helice, Greece.. 373
B.C.--
Rome.. 476 A.D.-- Antioch, Turkey  526 A.D.----Tokyo, Japan 703--Lisbon,
Portugal 1755--Venezuela 1812---Honshu, Sanriku Coast, Japan 1896--
   If anyone has any idea how I would approach finding this information
please drop me a line... I sure would appreciate any help or info anyone
can offer.
                               Jenna

Gerard Fryer wrote:
> 
> In article <847052952.11927.0@cisft64.demon.co.uk>, Martin Hogbin  writes:
> >Does anyone have any information on the so called earthlights that
> >may be connected with earthquakes?
> 
> Earthquake lights are bright luminescences at ground level, as much as
> a quarter-mile across, which may last for as long as two minutes. They
> are seen during an earthquake or immediately before. They are pretty
> obviously some sort of electromagnetic effect, though quite what has
> yet to be explained. The most popular explanation invokes
> piezoelectricity (voltage induced by squeezing rock) or
> triboluminescence (photon discharge on breaking atomic bonds).
> 
> Earthquake lights are pretty well documented and have been
> photographed in Japan. Several of the photographs are reproduced in
> "Earthquake lights: a review of observations and present theories," by
> J.S. Derr, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 63, p.
> 2177-2187, 1973. Derr also includes this old haiku:
> 
>          The Earth speaks softly
>             To the mountain
>          Which trembles
>             And lights the sky
> 
> Here in Hawaii the phenomenon is sometimes called "Pele's Dog" (I guess
> because a big earthquake may be a precursor to volcanic eruption and
> Pele is the Volcano Goddess). The last reliable report I heard of
> Pele's Dog was from Honuapo on the Big Island of Hawaii right after the
> magnitude 7.2 Kalapana earthquake of 1975: lights started flickering in
> the sky in an area with no roads or power lines, followed within a few
> seconds by the shaking. Bloke says to his wife "We have to get out of
> here!" They run out the front door of the house as the first wave of
> the tsunami pushes in the back door.
> 
> Dunno if you have wintergreen LifeSavers(tm) in the Old Sod, but if
> you can find some, take them into a dark room and smash them with a
> hammer. Triboluminescence. Sure is weird.
> 
> --
> Gerard Fryer
> gerard@hawaii.edu        http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/~gerard/
> 
> Personal views only.
Then what was that brilliant purple flash to the northwest that I and
several friends saw the night before the Landers and Big Bear quakes?  I
also cannot explain why, as soon as I saw it,I knew that we would have
an earthquake.  Six to eight hours later, voila!  BTW, I live in Orange
County, California, to put the above in the proper geographic frame of
reference (both Big Bear and Landers lie in the general direction of the
observed flash).
Bob
I use AOL for mail ONLY; I use Netcom and Netscape for everything else.

A DEMONSTRATION EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION PROGRAM   11/05/96
From:  E.D.G., Scientific Consultant, edgrsprj@ix.netcom.com
Web Site:  http://www.prairienet.org/~edgrsprj/homepage.html
Posted To:  Earthquake And Geology Related Newsgroups
This notice will discuss a demonstration version of a proposed
earthquake prediction program which I recently installed at my
Internet World Wide Web site at address (URL):
http://www.prairienet.org/~edgrsprj/152.htm
All of the information in this notice represents expressions of
personal opinion.
An article in the September 13, 1996 issue of "SCIENCE" magazine
pages 1484 to 1486 discussed an earthquake prediction
(forecasting) program which has been running in the People's
Republic of China for the past 30 years.  The program relies on
the collection and evaluation of earthquake precursor data
(earthquake warning signals).  When certain warning signs are
observed an earthquake alert is circulated.  The "SCIENCE"
magazine article stated that the program has reportedly enabled
earthquake prediction workers in that country to predict a number
of earthquakes and save a tremendous number of lives.
Here in the U.S. it would probably be relatively easy for us to
develop that type of earthquake prediction program by using the
Internet.  Private citizens, scientific groups, and government
agencies would collect earthquake precursor information and send
it to the computer running the program by using a Web site data
entry screen, by e-mail, by telephone, with simple, inexpensive
radio transmitters, and even by regular mail.  The data would be
evaluated, stored in downloadable files at some Web site and
displayed on expandable, interactive maps at that site.  To
determine how reliable the submitted data was likely to be the
program would check to see if it had been submitted by a
registered data supplier or by someone who was not registered.
When unusually large numbers of earthquake precursor observations
were being reported from some location, efforts would be made to
determine if an earthquake might be about to occur there.  When
an earthquake did occur researchers would go though the
downloadable earthquake precursor data files and attempt to
determine which precursors, if any, provided us with reliable
warnings about approaching earthquakes.
Such an earthquake prediction program could probably be developed
with a relatively small amount of effort and run for very little
money compared to the amount of devastation that it might enable
us to avoid if it produced just one accurate earthquake
prediction.  And the success which the government of the People's
Republic of China has reportedly had with their program suggests
to me that it would likely work.
For almost a year now there has been a proposal (presently due to
be updated) at my Web site which explains how we could create and
run that type of program.  The proposal can be found at address:
http://www.prairienet.org/~edgrsprj/108.htm
Recently I installed a demonstration version of that proposed
earthquake prediction program at my Web site (152.htm).  It is
based on made-up data and shows how such a program might have
worked if it had been running on January 16, 1994, the day before
a devastating earthquake occurred in Northridge, California, USA.
My demonstration program has an operational data entry screen
(150.htm) and a "Help File" for that screen (151.htm), color maps
which show how earthquake precursor data might be displayed, and
examples of how precursor data could be stored in downloadable
files.  Also in the "Help File" are links to Internet Web sites
where earthquake predictions (forecasts) are being made and to
sites where people can post their own earthquake predictions if
they wish.
E.D.G.,  Scientific Consultant

Okay, all you earthquake predictors out there.  I was fooling around
with my $1 earthquake futures concept, but here's really *big* money on
the Big One.  If you know the exact date of the Big One, and you have a
spare billion lying around, you too can become the next Gates. :)
********
http://beta.yahoo.com/headlines/961105/business/stories/earthquake_1.html
NEW YORK (Reuter) - Earthquake risk bonds that would pay investors
reduced returns if a major California earthquake struck during a
four-year period, are being rolled out for sale to institutional
investors next year. 
The bonds would raise about $1 billion for the new California Earthquake
Authority, which is scheduled to start selling earthquake insurance
policies on Dec. 1.
-- 
Harold W. Asmis        harold.w.asmis@hydro.on.ca
tel 416.592.7379  fax 416.592.5322
Standard Disclaimers Apply

In article <54t4fj$b4i@news.sas.ab.ca>, 
disaster@freenet.edmonton.ab.ca says...
>
>The 3rd International Conference -
>how bad are the areas in ontario?
>LOCAL AUTHORITIES CONFRONTING DISASTERS AND EMERGENCIES
>
>will be held in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, June 26th - July 1st, 1998.
>
>You'll want to check out our web page giving full details of this 
major
>disaster preparedness event.  Please do your browsers/readers a favour 
by
>inserting the following http link in your web page:
>
>
>        http://www.freenet.edmonton.ab.ca/disaster
>
>If you wish further information, visit our site, email by return or 
email
>directly to:
>
>        Dave Noble
>        Director of Provincial Programs
>        Alberta Transportation and Utilities
>        nobled@censsw.gov.ab.ca
>
>______________________________________________________________________
______
>Disaster Services Branch              EMAIL: 
disaster@freenet.edmonton.ab.ca
>Alberta Transportation and Utilities
>2nd flr, 4999 - 98 Avenue                       PHONE: (403) 422-9000
>Edmonton, Alberta  T6B 2X3                        FAX: (403) 422-1549

Thanks for the info.  Do you know of anyone who is studying this 
phenomenon?  In particular, has anyone done any optical spectroscopy on 
the observed light as this would give a clue as to its origin.
Regards
Martin Hogbin

cbmj@accucomm.net (cbmj cbmj) wrote:
>Hi... I am trying to find information that could tell me about the
>explanations provided, at the time in hisotry, for the occurance of
>earthquakes for many famous historic earthquakes... Helice, Greece.. 373
>B.C.--
>Rome.. 476 A.D.-- Antioch, Turkey  526 A.D.----Tokyo, Japan 703--Lisbon,
>Portugal 1755--Venezuela 1812---Honshu, Sanriku Coast, Japan 1896--
>   If anyone has any idea how I would approach finding this information
>please drop me a line... I sure would appreciate any help or info anyone
>can offer.
Try your nearest library.
----
Rodger Whitlock

In article <847218456.19033.1@cisft64.demon.co.uk>, ft64@cityscape.co.uk writes:
>Thanks for the info.  Do you know of anyone who is studying this 
>phenomenon?  In particular, has anyone done any optical spectroscopy on 
>the observed light as this would give a clue as to its origin.
I dunno anyone working on earthquake lights. Actual spectroscopy is a
bit tough when you don't know where to set your equipment up. Arch
Johnston had a letter to "Nature" in December 1991 suggesting that
earthquake lights might be sonoluminescence (from the effects of sound
waves on water). If you are interested, that might be a place to
start.
-- 
Gerard Fryer      
gerard@hawaii.edu        http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/~gerard/
Personal views only.

I don’t know if everybody understands the implications of the upcoming
multi-billion dollar earthquake bond market on the denizens of our
little group.
To explain, a bond is a contract to pay the bearer a given amount on a
given day.  Normally, these are just interest-sensitive instruments.  So
say I’m a big institution that issues a bond that’s worth $500 in 4
years.  The market takes a best guess of the interest rates, and I can
only sell it for $400.  The bond is then freely traded on the market and
takes a life of its own.  If interest rates suddenly zoom up, the bond
value takes a dive, and the inverse is true.
An earthquake bond is about the same thing, except I say that I will
only pay $400 if there’s an earthquake of a given magnitude in
California during those 4 years, and $500 if there isn’t.  Now, I might
only be able to sell the bond for $350, because of the risk.  During the
4 years, the bond value will go up and down according to interest rates,
but will tank if there’s an earthquake.
You can invest in these bonds, but you can also play on the derivative
value, or slope of the bond value curve.  This gives you much greater
return at greater risk.  Big money goes to the person who can predict
the diving of the bond price a few days in advance.
Now, the implications for this group are profound:
1.  Slowly, one by one, the brightest seismologists in this group will
‘disappear’, lured by big money to join the best quantum physics brains
on Wall St.
2.  Lucy will get mysterious sums of money to support the real-time GPS,
provided they allow a real-time feed of the data.
3.  The remaining seismologists in California will get generous grants
for basic research, provided they give occasional private lectures, in
plush surroundings.
4.  The next time the USGS issues an Alert, and it doesn’t pan out,
they’ll be hit with a $200 million class-action lawsuit.
5.  The next time someone comes up with a secret way to predict
earthquakes in this group, we can call them a LOSER, since if they had
anything, they would be talking to the Quantum fund.
Now, all the left-leaning Californians, who live on the big jello-basins
will scream that this is capitalism at its worst, and that the
government should control all this, and that earthquake prediction will
now be secret.  But smart Californians should be ecstatic.  They can
bypass the government-run insurance, which has to support thousands of
civil servants, and go directly to the market.  For the amount of
insurance, they merely set up derivatives on a monthly basis, which pay
nothing, if there is no earthquake, and really big if there is.
Then they trust that all those brains are on to something, and they
constantly monitor the value of earthquake bonds, on their Web stock
ticker (connected to a pager).  The moment that the value dives for no
reason, they pack up the puppies and head for Lucy’s house.  Then, while
everybody in California is lined up for insurance, they collect their
winnings, and take an extended holiday, while everybody else gets their
teeth rattled with 10,000 aftershocks.  In a year, they go back and buy
up distressed real estate, since the earthquake won’t come back for
another 100 years. 
Harold Asmis (at home)

If anyone has an extra copy of Richter's "Seismology" and would be
willing to part with it, please contact me - willing to pay fair price 
plus postage.    
Ted Blank

I was thinking today about whether we are ready to "go it alone" if the 
next large Bay Area quake were to make our house uninhabitable for a 
period of time.  Answer is a big "no".  We've got lots of camping equipment
but it's all in the garage and in worst-case scenario it would all be
impossible to get to.  Same for water bottles, dried food, etc.  
That leads me to the question - should we be keeping all our quake 
supplies outside, and if so, in what kind of protective covering.  Right
now, all I have outside the house is a Rubbermaid toolshed.  Pretty 
weathertight, but for tents and sleeping bags I think one rainy season and
we'd be talking serious mildew.  
So what are readers of this newsgroup doing for EQ preparedness?  There are
several stores in the Bay Area which specialize in EQ preparedness equipment
but I haven't visited them yet.  Anyone been to one and seen anything 
worthwhile that doesn't cost arms & legs?
Ted Blank

The best single source, I believe, is "Earthquake Lights: a Review of 
Observations and Present Theories," by John S. Derr in the Bulletin of 
the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 36, no. 6, pp. 2177-2187, 
December, 1973. Also, see the chapter on "Earthquakes and Light 
Phenomena" in the book, "When the Snakes Awake," by Helmut Tributsch, 
MIT Press, 1982.
When seismologists were heavy into prediction in the 1970s, this 
phenomenon received a fair amount of attention. It has slipped from 
view since then. But read layperson accounts of almost any major 
earthquake and you will find references to lights. I believe in Japan 
they even photographed them. Like the deep, rumbling sound of the 
earth moving, lights are fascinating because they provide a sense of 
awe for these incredible events that are too often just reduced to 
mere numbers.
Has anyone out there seen earthquake lights, and if so can you 
describe what you saw?
Philip L. Fradkin
filfrad@nbn.com

Ted Blank wrote:
> 
snip
> but it's all in the garage and in worst-case scenario it would all be
> impossible to get to.  Same for water bottles, dried food, etc.
> 
> That leads me to the question - should we be keeping all our quake
> supplies outside, and if so, in what kind of protective covering...
I have the same concerns. I had put a bunch of supplies in a large
trashcan, placed it outside, then duck-taped it shut. After about a year
I opened it up only to find exploded cans, a leaky water container, and
many crawly-critters living inside. I stored a "special" bag of supplies
in my truck, but that got stolen. (Now I have a much smaller kit shoved
behind the driver's seat.) I now store (what supplies I have left) in a
bin on the bottom of my closet near the front door. I also wonder what
if I cant get to that area. I'm in a condo with no garage or storage
space available. 
When you find the answer to your questions, let me know too! 
-terri