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Subject: Re: new madrid -- From: D P Dwiggins
Subject: 961205: So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report -- From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Subject: 961205: Map for So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report -- From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Subject: Re: Assessment of predictions (was Earthquake advisory cancelled 11/24/96) -- From: gerard@hawaii.edu (Gerard Fryer)
Subject: Re: What's the truth? Are EQs really on the increase or not? -- From: ajones@binghamton.edu ()
Subject: World USGS Quake Map 11/27-12/4/96 -- From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Subject: Long Valley USGS Quake Map 11/27-12/4/96 -- From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)

Articles

Subject: Re: new madrid
From: D P Dwiggins
Date: 5 Dec 1996 16:23:12 GMT
No damage was reported.  A local newspaper stated there was a
correctional institute near Tiptonville, Tennessee, at which the
hot water was not running some time after the 4.3 event, but it
is doubtful whether this had anything to do with the earthquake.
The lastest numerical information for New Madrid events may be 
found using finger quake@quake.ceri.memphis.edu.  There is a link
to this command at
http://gandalf.ceri.memphis.edu/~dwiggins/
At the above site there is also a link to our weekly gopher
summaries; information for the events on 28-29 November is listed
on the latest summary at
http://gandalf.ceri.memphis.edu/~dwiggins/gopher/1996-1118-1127.html
dpd
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Subject: 961205: So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report
From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 1996 19:24:35 GMT
						December 5, 1996
		Weekly Earthquake Report for Southern California
		------------------------------------------------
        	         November 27 - December 4, 1996                   
	Prepared by:  Kate Hutton, Seismological Laboratory
		      (kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu)
		      Lucy Jones, Jim Mori, U. S. Geological Survey
		      California Institute of Technology
	For further information, please contact the authors or the 
	Caltech Public Relations Office at 818-395-6327.  For daily 
	updates, call our Earthquake Information Hotline: 818-395-6977.
			--------------------------------
	This week's Report covers the time period from midnight Thursday
	morning, November 27, Universal Time (ie. GMT), to midnight 
	Wednesday night, December 4, Universal Time.  In local time, 
	the period of coverage is from 4 p.m., November 26, Pacific 
	Daylight Time, to 4 p.m., December 4, Pacific Daylight Time.
	Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, last week's Report was one day
	early, making this week's longer than usual.  We detected and 
	processed 1,052 earthquakes during the six-day period covered.  
	Due to a combination of high seismicity and a four-day weekend,
	about 100 small events are not processed yet; so this total is
	a lower bound on the week's seismicity.
		The major events of the week were: a M4.1 Landers after-
	shock late last Wednesday afternoon, along with a few aftershocks
	up to M3.1, and a Mw5.3 in the Coso Range east of Coso Junction,
	with a large number of aftershocks, up to M3.7.
		The M4.1 was a typical Landers aftershock, with a mostly
	north northwest trending strike-slip mechanism.  It was located 
	very close to the epicenter of the Mw6.1 Joshua Tree quake that 
	preceded the Landers earthquake by two months.  This week's event 
	was felt fairly widely, in the Yucca Valley and Desert Hot 
	Springs area.
		The Coso earthquake occurred in the area of the Coso 
	geothermal fields, where there are frequent small quakes.  
	This region has had vigorous swarms in the past, consisting of 
	many small earthquakes with several M4's, in 1981, 1982-83, 1985
	and 1992.  The 1995-96 Ridgecrest sequence that included 3 M5+ 
	events occurred in an area 15 to 20 miles to the south.  Focal 
	mechanisms from both the first motions and the long-period 
	surface waves showed a strike-slip solution with northeast and 
	northwest nodal planes.  The distribution of relocated after-
	shocks seems to be elongated in a northwest-southeast direction, 
	suggesting right-lateral slip on a northwest trending fault 
	plane.  The Coso earthquake is producing a robust aftershock 
	sequence, as is typical of the Owens Valley region.  Given this 
	rate of activity, we would expect to see a few more aftershocks 
	above M3 in the next couple of weeks.
		In hindsight, we identified a small "foreshock" sequence 
	that occurred 27 hours before the mainshock and had 3 M2 earth-
	quakes with several smaller events (see last week's Report).  The 
	closest telemetered strong-motion instrument recorded 2% g at 
	Ridgecrest, about 25 miles to the south. 
                Table 1 lists the quakes this week that were M2.0 or
        larger in the central part of the coverage area.  To make the
	list managably short, Coso quakes are listed only if they are
	M2.5 or larger.  Times are local times; if you want Greenwich 
	Mean Time, add 7 hrs to the Pacific Daylight Time or 8 hrs to 
	the Pacific Standard Time listed.
	Table 1
	-------
	Date  Time      N Lat.   W Long.   Mag  
	-------------------------------------------------------------
        11/26  5:42 pm  33 57.2  116 18.8  4.1  12 mi. S of Joshua Tree
						FELT
        11/26  5:44 pm  33 57.5  116 18.5  3.0  	"
        11/26  5:51 pm  33 57.9  116 18.9  2.0  	"
        11/26  6:16 pm  33 57.2  116 18.8  3.1  	"
        11/26  6:24 pm  33 57.4  116 18.8  2.3  	"
        11/26  9:06 pm  33 57.5  116 18.7  2.2  	"
        11/27 12:11 am  33 45.9  118 27.1  2.1  1 mi. WSW of Palos Verdes 
						Point
        11/27 12:18 am  33 57.4  116 18.8  2.4  12 mi. S of Joshua Tree
        11/27 12:22 am  33 57.3  116 18.7  2.0  	"
        11/27 12:50 am  33 57.3  116 18.9  2.2  	"
        11/27  1:19 am  33 12.6  116  2.0  2.2  6 mi. SW of Salton City
        11/27  9:45 am  34 12.1  117 24.6  2.2  1 mi. SSW of Devore
        11/27 10:01 am  34 14.8  119 40.4  2.5  12 mi. S of downtown Santa 
						Barbara
        11/27 12:07 pm  36  1.4  117 51.5  2.0  5 mi. ESE of Coso Junction
        11/27 12:17 pm  36  4.5  117 39.0  5.3  Coso Range, 16 mi. E of 
						Coso Junction
						WIDELY FELT
        11/27 12:20 pm  36  3.2  117 39.3  2.5  	"
        11/27 12:24 pm  36  4.7  117 38.9  2.5  	"
        11/27 12:25 pm  36  5.5  117 39.0  2.8  	"
        11/27 12:39 pm  36  5.1  117 39.2  2.5  	"
        11/27 12:46 pm  36  4.2  117 39.9  2.6  	"
        11/27 12:46 pm  36  5.2  117 38.8  2.9  	"
        11/27  2:29 pm  36  4.5  117 38.1  3.7  	"
        11/27  2:30 pm  36  3.8  117 38.0  2.9  	"
        11/27  2:31 pm  36  5.0  117 38.8  2.5  	"
        11/27  2:48 pm  36  4.3  117 39.3  2.6  	"
        11/27  3:41 pm  32 29.9  115 17.0  3.1  17 mi. SE of Calexico
        11/27  3:45 pm  32 29.6  115 16.8  2.2   	"
        11/27  3:48 pm  32 29.0  115 16.8  2.4   	"
        11/27  3:55 pm  36  5.0  117 39.3  2.5  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/27  4:27 pm  36  3.8  117 40.3  2.5   	"
        11/27  4:40 pm  36  5.3  117 39.2  2.9   	"
        11/27  4:45 pm  36  4.6  117 39.3  2.7   	"
        11/27  4:45 pm  36  5.2  117 38.5  2.5   	"
        11/27  4:53 pm  36  3.9  117 38.4  2.5   	"
        11/27  4:56 pm  36  5.3  117 39.2  2.7   	"
        11/27  5:00 pm  33 59.8  116 17.9  2.2  9 mi. S of Joshua Tree
        11/27  5:01 pm  36  4.6  117 39.1  2.7  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/27  5:18 pm  36  4.1  117 38.5  2.5   	"
        11/27  5:47 pm  34 56.3  116 39.9  2.0  20 mi. E of Barstow
        11/27  8:52 pm  36  5.1  117 39.0  2.6  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/27  8:59 pm  36  5.0  117 39.0  2.6   	"
        11/27 11:41 pm  36  3.9  117 38.3  2.6   	"
        11/28 12:49 am  36  4.8  117 38.4  3.5   	"
        11/28 12:50 am  36  4.0  117 39.0  2.8   	"
        11/28  3:29 am  36  5.4  117 39.4  3.2   	"
        11/28  3:44 am  36  6.0  117 38.7  2.5   	"
        11/28  6:46 am  36  3.8  117 38.5  2.7   	"
        11/28  6:48 am  35 48.2  117 37.9  2.0  12 mi. N of Ridgecrest
        11/28  8:37 am  33 44.0  118  2.7  2.1  3 mi. N of Bolsa Chica 
						Beach             
        11/28 12:21 pm  36  5.3  117 39.5  2.5  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/28  1:06 pm  36  5.5  117 39.0  2.5  	"
        11/28  1:47 pm  36  5.2  117 39.1  3.5  	"
        11/28  1:49 pm  36  5.4  117 39.1  2.5  	"
        11/28  2:03 pm  36 34.7  117 53.5  2.4  9 mi. E of Lone Pine
        11/28  2:05 pm  36  5.4  117 39.1  3.7  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/28  2:51 pm  36  4.7  117 39.9  2.6  	"
        11/28  3:10 pm  36  5.3  117 39.5  2.6  	"
        11/28  3:39 pm  36 34.5  117 53.1  2.7  10 mi. E of Lone Pine
        11/28  3:45 pm  36  5.0  117 38.8  2.8  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/28  7:15 pm  36  3.8  117 39.0  2.8  	"
        11/29 12:57 am  36  7.1  117 37.7  2.5  	"
        11/29  4:21 am  36  4.2  117 38.4  2.5  	"
        11/29  5:42 am  36  4.5  117 38.0  2.7  	"
        11/29 10:01 am  36  5.1  117 38.5  2.5  	"
        11/29 10:14 am  34 17.7  116 11.8  2.2  12 mi. NNE of Joshua Tree
        11/29 10:34 am  36  5.0  117 39.2  2.6  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/29  1:31 pm  36  5.4  117 39.3  3.1  	"
        11/29  3:44 pm  32 45.9  115 26.8  2.2  6 mi. ESE of El Centro
        11/29  7:46 pm  36  5.4  117 38.3  2.6  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/30  8:28 am  36  5.4  117 39.3  2.7  	"
        11/30  9:54 am  33 21.2  116 17.9  2.1  8 mi. NNE of Borrego 
						Springs
        11/30 10:46 am  36  5.2  117 38.9  2.5  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        11/30 11:03 am  36  4.0  117 38.8  2.8  	"
        11/30 12:15 pm  36  5.6  117 39.3  2.8  	"
        11/30  2:11 pm  36  5.6  117 39.1  3.6  	"
        12/1  11:42 pm  33 57.5  116 19.4  2.1  10 mi. E of Desert Hot 
						Springs
        12/1   7:29 am  34 35.7  116 37.0  2.3  21 mi. ENE of Lucerne 
						Valley
        12/1   7:30 am  34 35.4  116 37.1  3.1  	"
        12/1  10:45 am  36  5.4  117 39.4  2.8  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/1  12:25 pm  34 34.4  116 32.8  2.2  24 mi. ENE of Lucerne 
						Valley
        12/1   2:04 pm  36  3.9  117 38.4  2.6  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/1   6:13 pm  36  4.6  117 38.2  2.5  	"
        12/1   7:47 pm  33 38.5  116 43.3  2.4  6 mi. NNW of Anza
        12/1  11:18 pm  36  5.7  117 39.2  2.5  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/2   5:55 am  34 20.4  116 27.9  2.0  15 mi. N of Yucca Valley
        12/2   6:02 am  34 20.5  116 28.0  2.1  	"
        12/2  10:52 am  34 19.4  118 32.3  2.2  3 mi. S of Newhall
        12/2  10:59 am  34  7.0  116 59.6  2.1  6 mi. NNE of Yucaipa
        12/2   2:15 pm  33 14.2  116 46.5  2.5  Under Lake Henshaw
        12/2   8:28 pm  36  5.1  117 38.1  2.9  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/2   8:28 pm  36  4.9  117 38.2  2.8  	"
        12/2  10:34 pm  36  5.6  117 39.4  2.8  	"
        12/3   5:36 am  34 16.4  118 30.9  2.0  Under Granada Hills
        12/3  10:00 am  36  5.5  117 39.3  2.9  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/3  10:36 am  36  5.7  117 39.1  2.7  	"
        12/3  12:44 pm  36  3.8  117 39.1  3.3  	"
        12/4   1:18 am  34 27.0  116 30.8  2.5  23 mi. N of Yucca Valley
        12/4   4:38 am  35 43.3  117 37.2  2.2  7 mi. NNE of Ridgecrest
        12/4   4:55 am  36  4.2  117 39.1  2.6  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/4   3:15 pm  34 28.5  119 21.8  2.2  6 mi. WNW of Ojai
	-------------------------------------------------------------
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Subject: 961205: Map for So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report
From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 1996 19:25:01 GMT
begin 644 quake.gif
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eturn to Top


Subject: Re: Assessment of predictions (was Earthquake advisory cancelled 11/24/96)
From: gerard@hawaii.edu (Gerard Fryer)
Date: 5 Dec 1996 19:16:29 GMT
In article <585t1a$5pd@bashir.peak.org>, kellyt@PEAK.ORG (Tim Kelly) writes:
>Gerard Fryer (gerard@hawaii.edu) wrote:
>
>> comment that since the US National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
>> was initiated under President Carter, not one US earthquake has been
>> predicted.
>
>Hey Bob, Dennis: I guess they haven't got our email addresses. The post 
>is somewhat correct. There's been a bunch of them predicted! :)
(note that I have corrected the attribution above)
I was only quoting. The original reference, Midori Ashida's article,
implied "no potentially damaging earthquake has been predicted."
Despite Bob and Dennis' efforts, it is true that no earthquake larger
than magnitude 5 has been predicted in a manner which allows us to
dismiss the null hypothesis. Farnsworth and Trombley might disagree,
but their prediction of the 1993 Woodburn earthquake was made under
dubious circumstances (we'll never know for sure if the event was
pre-dicted or post-dicted) and it was followed by spectacular
failure--their late-93 Cascadia event never occurred.
There is no question that Dennis' results are tantalizing, but they are
tantalizing in precisely the same manner as the VAN predictions: while
the success rate is high the failure rate is high also. Is Dennis onto
something? It's hard to say. The same arguments that have been raised
over VAN apply to Dennis' predictions. See the special issue of
Geophysical Research Letters (vol. 23, no. 11, 27 May 1996).
-- 
Gerard Fryer      
gerard@hawaii.edu        http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/~gerard/
Personal views only.
Return to Top
Subject: Re: What's the truth? Are EQs really on the increase or not?
From: ajones@binghamton.edu ()
Date: 5 Dec 1996 20:24:43 GMT
Judson McClendon (judsonmc@ix.netcom.com) wrote:
: I keep reading and hearing statements something like "according to the
: USGS, large EQs have been getting more frequent..." or some such. 
: However, the USGS (http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/) has a text file saying
: there is NO increase.  It says that the only increases observed are that
: more 'minor' EQs are detected because of more/better instrumentation. 
: But the data in the file only shows EQs of 7.0> and is a few years out
: of date.  Just what IS the truth concerning significant (6.0>) EQs?
The file you're referring to, attached, indeed shows there is
no increase in mag > 7.0.  In fact the year with the most events is
1943 and the year with the most is 1986.  If you start putting
ones in the range 6.0 to 6.9, then there is a problem since only
in recent years can we monitor mag 6.0 events any where in the world.
Alan Jones
         NUMBER OF EARTHQUAKES PER YEAR MAGNITUDE 7.0 OR GREATER
                                1900 - 1989
        1900    13              1930    13              1960    22
        1901    14              1931    26              1961    18
        1902     8              1932    13              1962    15
        1903    10              1933    14              1963    20
        1904    16              1934    22              1964    15
        1905    26              1935    24              1965    22
        1906    32              1936    21              1966    19
        1907    27              1937    22              1967    16
        1908    18              1938    26              1968    30
        1909    32              1939    21              1969    27
        1910    36              1940    23              1970    29
        1911    24              1941    24              1971    23
        1912    22              1942    27              1972    20
        1913    23              1943*   41              1973    16
        1914    22              1944    31              1974    21
        1915    18              1945    27              1975    21
        1916    25              1946    35              1976$   25
        1917    21              1947    26              1977    16
        1918    21              1948    28              1978    18
        1919    14              1949    36              1979    15
        1920     8              1950    39              1980    18
        1921    11              1951    21              1981    14
        1922    14              1952    17              1982    10
        1923    23              1953    22              1983    15
        1924    18              1954    17              1984     8
        1925    17              1955    19              1985    15
        1926    19              1956    15              1986#    6
        1927    20              1957    34              1987    11
        1928    22              1958    10              1988     8
        1929    19              1959    15              1989     7
        Total 1900-1989 = 1822 events = 20 per year
        1990 (through July 19)- 10 events
        * Most active year since 1900
        # Least active year since 1900
        $ Year with most people killed since 1900 (295,000 - 699,000;
          dominated by the Tangshan quake with casualty estimate from
          255,000 - 655,000)
Statistics were compiled from the Earthquake Data Base System of the
U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center, Golden CO
Return to Top
Subject: World USGS Quake Map 11/27-12/4/96
From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 6 Dec 1996 02:06:29 GMT
Thu Dec  5 18:27:03 PST 1996
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
begin 664 world.gif
M1TE&.#=A@ +@ 8       /___RP     @ +@ 0 "^XR/J0>BJ36KH*X_KJTZJB
M2F:K@)M#6QO[I8L C,,KR],J#($<@*QZ'.N, ",76$]
MH"]SM ,Z>[N[]_9Z^,1\"ST5^3[1N3YN[9JYLX=K'CMZ"@Z48
MCO.731Z\8PLA:@ 8^U"BP&4%[R%,X##BLWP5*0S$AI#B!XS<-+8SI[):S);;
M6,H$64^=Q7@\::*46=2=7KM9U#H^)\J9:@UZY7K=*E!^ZCV+4:6ZH-EG2%0;U+
MJQK^"_ABX*MWP3Z%B);DX(II+P@=NO5P8<0ZYP:>O+=IP]&A; 4^5;+-TALN=
M$XL6"UIU7-)*R=9U77:PQ<@_D[$EP9!P/\VE*[?V.;ONY+N/FY?<_%PQ<=^9
M$9>+MCAYX\\P.3N7N];>2I!:JY?EK/='M0YA(,O'G76CY18?9>DEMYYEL52W'7UX(/J!;>D2%!9LO&C;)H
M'FZ'49@@>._%DT]6*$!EW&TB;=HCAA0F&Z;&"$ !Y(VDLJ@KA?AA<.AQN0EF6'
M(SKB_/=;AL[YQ20'IR&H7H2;%?>@BC="])F",=@5(V97U]>+C0^8QQYR69FZ)
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Subject: Long Valley USGS Quake Map 11/27-12/4/96
From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 6 Dec 1996 02:06:09 GMT
Thu Dec  5 18:27:02 PST 1996
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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Downloaded by WWW Programs
Byron Palmer

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