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Subject: Sacramento is Low! -- From: Harold Asmis
Subject: 961219: So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report -- From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Subject: 961219: Map for So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report -- From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Subject: Re: Sacramento is Low! -- From: cjones@mantle.colorado.edu (Craig Jones)
Subject: Re: 1994 Northridge Earthquakes Hasn't Stopped, Hills Has Risen -- From: cjones@mantle.colorado.edu (Craig Jones)
Subject: Re: Sacramento is Low! -- From: Harold and Lise
Subject: San Francisco Bay USGS Quake Map 12/12-18/96 -- From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Subject: World USGS Quake Map 12/12-18/96 -- From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)

Articles

Subject: Sacramento is Low!
From: Harold Asmis
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 1996 10:13:07 -0500
Another tiny snip (hopefully below the gaze of those Internet-destroying
copyright lobbyists in Europe :)
***
The seismic hazard maps were prepared jointly by the U.S. Geological
Survey and the state Division of Mines and Geology. The most seismically
risky areas in the state include a band as wide as 60 miles straddling
the San Andreas fault through most of its length, as well as bands
straddling faults in the San Gabriel and Santa Susana mountains in Los
Angeles and Ventura counties and the San Jacinto fault in the Inland
Empire.
Also at relatively high risk are offshore faults affecting Humboldt
County on the North Coast, the Calaveras and Hayward faults in the Bay
Area, and scattered parts of the Eastern Sierra.
Included in the least risky areas are most of the Central Valley.
Sacramento has the least risk of destructive earthquakes of any big
city in the state, and San Diego is well below the norm.
...Study of the maps showed, in fact, that homeowners in some of the
areas rated most risky in California are getting earthquake
insurance under the new state system at some of the lowest rates.
-- 
Harold W. Asmis        harold.w.asmis@hydro.on.ca
tel 416.592.7379  fax 416.592.5322
Standard Disclaimers Apply
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Subject: 961219: So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report
From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 1996 19:20:34 GMT
						December 19, 1996
		Weekly Earthquake Report for Southern California
		------------------------------------------------
        	             December 12 - 19, 1996                   
	Prepared by:  Kate Hutton, Seismological Laboratory
		      (kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu)
		      Lucy Jones, U. S. Geological Survey
		      California Institute of Technology
	For further information, please contact the authors or the 
	Caltech Public Relations Office at 818-395-6327.  For daily 
	updates, call our Earthquake Information Hotline: 818-395-6977.
			--------------------------------
	This week's Report covers the time period from midnight Thursday
	morning, December 12, Universal Time (ie. GMT), to midnight 
	Wednesday night, December 19, Universal Time.  In local time, 
	the period of coverage is from 4 p.m., December 11, Pacific 
	Standard Time, to 4 p.m., December 19, Pacific Standard Time.
	We detected and processed 475 earthquakes during the seven-day 
	period covered.  
		The seismicity this week was basically a continuation
	of last week's: more Coso and Ridgecrest quakes.  The three
	largest events, two M3.8's and a M3.6, were all Coso quakes,
	aftershocks of the November 27, 1996 M5.3.  The largest of the
	Ridgecrest quakes was a M2.9.  We did not get any reports that
	indicated any of these events were felt by the public.
		No M3+ earthquakes happened anywhere else in our coverage
	area.
		Because of the holidays coming up, the next two Weekly
	Reports will probably be produced from automatically processed
	data only.  This means, in particular, that the total number of
	events will be lower than it otherwise would be.  We hope to get
	caught up in January and resummarize the late December activity
	for our readers.
                Table 1 lists the quakes this week that were M2.0 or
        larger in the central part of the coverage area.  Times are local 
	times; if you want Greenwich Mean Time, add 7 hrs to the Pacific 
	Daylight Time or 8 hrs to the Pacific Standard Time listed.
	Table 1
	-------
	Date  Time      N Lat.   W Long.   Mag  
	-------------------------------------------------------------
        12/12  2:59 am  36  5.3  117 39.5  2.2  16 mi. ENE of Coso Juction
        12/12  7:36 am  34 27.4  120 32.5  2.0  4 mi. W of Pt. Conception
        12/12  8:20 am  34 26.3  120 33.5  2.0  	"
        12/12  8:25 am  36  4.0  117 38.3  2.7  17 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/12  8:34 am  36  5.1  117 39.4  2.1  	"
        12/12  9:38 am  36  5.2  117 39.1  2.0  	"
        12/12 11:31 am  36  4.8  117 38.0  2.0  	"
        12/12  1:14 pm  36  4.1  117 37.9  2.1  	"
        12/12  1:30 pm  36  5.4  117 39.2  2.0  	"
        12/12  2:02 pm  36  4.0  117 38.4  2.5  	"
        12/12  2:36 pm  36  3.9  117 38.8  2.6  	"
        12/12  6:18 pm  36  5.0  117 39.3  3.0  	"
        12/12  6:18 pm  36  4.5  117 39.3  2.1  	"
        12/12  6:28 pm  36  4.8  117 39.4  2.8  	"
        12/12  7:00 pm  36  5.0  117 39.5  3.8  	"
        12/12  7:32 pm  33 41.0  117 56.2  2.1  2 mi. SSE of Fountain 
						Valley
        12/12  8:18 pm  36  5.1  117 39.7  2.4  17 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/12  8:38 pm  36  4.6  117 38.9  2.2  	"
        12/12  9:23 pm  34  1.9  117 14.1  2.9  1 mi. SE of Loma Linda
        12/12  9:58 pm  33 11.9  115 34.4  2.2  4 mi. SW  of Niland
        12/12 11:19 pm  36  4.9  117 39.3  2.1  16 mi. E of Coso Juction
        12/13 12:29 am  36  3.7  117 38.7  2.2  	"
        12/13 12:31 am  36  3.8  117 38.6  2.2  	"
        12/13  1:43 am  36  5.1  117 39.4  2.3  	"
        12/13  8:31 am  34 20.3  118 28.1  2.2  4 mi. NNW of San Fernando
        12/13  9:39 am  34 57.6  116 39.9  2.2  20 mi. ENE of Barstow
        12/13  9:54 am  35 47.3  117 37.6  2.0  11 mi. N of Ridgecrest
        12/13 10:38 am  36  3.7  117 38.8  2.0  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/13  1:54 pm  36  3.8  117 38.9  2.0  	"
        12/13  2:10 pm  33 53.2  116  2.0  2.2  15 mi. NE of Indio
        12/13 10:38 pm  36 10.9  117 35.8  2.1  13 mi. SW of Panamint 
						Springs
        12/13 10:41 pm  36  5.0  117 39.2  2.0  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/14 12:29 am  36  3.8  117 38.8  2.8  	"
        12/14 12:32 am  36  3.9  117 38.8  2.4  	"
        12/14  1:55 am  32  8.3  116 41.5  2.7  35 mi. SE of San Ysidro 
        12/14  4:42 am  36  5.6  117 38.1  2.1  16 mi. E of Coso Juction
        12/14  6:23 am  36  5.1  117 39.2  2.2  	"
        12/14  7:03 am  36  4.2  117 39.3  2.4  	"
        12/14  8:47 am  36  4.6  117 39.2  2.0  	"
        12/14 12:00 pm  34 22.8  116 27.9  2.1  18 mi. N of Yucca Valley
        12/14  2:57 pm  36  4.7  117 39.5  2.2  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/14  9:12 pm  34  9.0  116 26.6  2.3  2 mi. N of Yucca Valley
        12/15 12:27 am  36  4.0  117 38.0  2.8  17 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/15  7:10 am  36  4.8  117 39.1  2.4  	"
        12/15 11:39 am  36  4.6  117 54.0  2.6  3 mi. NE of Coso Junction
        12/15  1:34 pm  34 37.3  116 38.0  2.5  21 mi. NE of Lucerne 
						Valley
        12/15  2:42 pm  36  3.7  117 38.7  2.7  17 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/15  6:18 pm  33 26.8  116 54.2  2.8  6 mi. NNW of Palomar 
						Observatory
        12/15  7:31 pm  36  4.5  117 38.6  2.1  17 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/15  7:53 pm  35 47.8  117 38.2  2.6  12 mi. N of Ridgecrest
        12/15  8:06 pm  35 47.7  117 38.3  2.9  	"
        12/15  8:45 pm  32 21.5  115  6.4  2.6  31 mi. SE of Calexico
        12/16  2:30 am  36  5.2  117 39.2  3.6  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/16  2:41 am  36  4.6  117 39.3  2.2  	"
        12/16  2:44 am  36  4.8  117 39.4  2.1  	"
        12/16  7:05 am  36  3.7  117 37.8  2.2  	"
        12/16  7:37 am  36  4.6  117 39.3  2.0  	"
        12/16  9:07 am  36  3.8  117 38.3  2.0  	"
        12/16  9:14 am  36  4.7  117 39.5  2.1  	"
        12/16 10:01 am  35 47.7  117 38.3  2.3  12 mi. N of Ridgecrest
        12/16 10:49 am  32 28.0  115 15.3  2.4  19 mi. SE of Calexico
        12/16  2:05 pm  36  4.1  117 38.1  2.4  17 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/16  3:22 pm  34 13.4  116 27.1  2.0  7 mi. N of Yucca Valley
        12/16  7:24 pm  34 34.2  116 34.3  2.3  22 mi. ENE of Lucerne 
						Valley
        12/16  8:03 pm  36  5.0  117 39.3  3.8  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/16  8:07 pm  36  5.1  117 39.1  2.0  	"
        12/16  8:10 pm  36  5.1  117 39.2  2.4  	"
        12/16  8:33 pm  36  5.5  117 39.6  2.7  	"
        12/16 10:59 pm  36  5.6  117 39.3  2.4  	"
        12/16 11:11 pm  36  5.4  117 39.4  2.0  	"
        12/17 12:29 am  36  4.8  117 39.1  2.1  	"
        12/17  1:27 am  36  4.7  117 39.7  2.9  	"
        12/17  1:28 am  36  4.7  117 39.4  2.4  	"
        12/17  1:29 am  36  4.7  117 39.6  2.2  	"
        12/17  2:30 am  36  4.7  117 39.3  2.4  	"
        12/17  3:13 am  36  5.7  117 39.4  2.2  	"
        12/17  3:22 am  36  1.0  117 42.5  2.5  	"
        12/17  4:22 am  36  0.9  117 42.6  2.0  	"
        12/17  7:31 am  36  5.0  117 39.3  2.4  	"
        12/17  8:41 am  36  5.0  117 39.5  3.0  	"
        12/17  9:08 am  36  3.8  117 38.8  2.6  	"
        12/17  3:24 pm  36  5.6  117 39.5  2.1  	"
        12/17  3:32 pm  36  4.3  117 38.7  2.7  	"
        12/17  4:07 pm  36  3.5  117 38.3  2.1  	"
        12/17  6:15 pm  36  5.0  117 39.3  2.4  	"
        12/17  6:28 pm  34 59.6  116 57.3  2.2  8 mi. NNE of Barstow
        12/17  9:07 pm  33 13.6  116  2.3  2.4  5 mi. SW of Salton City
        12/18  1:04 am  36  4.8  117 39.3  2.7  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/18  7:42 am  33 31.6  116 33.3  2.2  7 mi. ESE of Anza
        12/18  7:59 am  34  0.5  116 45.7  2.0  6 mi. NNE of Cabazon
        12/18 10:38 am  36  3.8  117 38.8  2.1  16 mi. E of Coso Junction
        12/18 11:11 am  33 39.3  117  2.9  2.1  7 mi. SW of Hemet
        12/18 12:16 pm  36 26.6  117 48.4  2.0  15 mi. NE of Olancha
        12/18  3:17 pm  34 20.8  118 18.5  2.2  6 mi. N of Sunland
	-------------------------------------------------------------
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Subject: 961219: Map for So. Calif. Weekly Earthquake Report
From: kate@bombay.gps.caltech.edu
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 1996 19:21:00 GMT
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end
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Subject: Re: Sacramento is Low!
From: cjones@mantle.colorado.edu (Craig Jones)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 96 21:45:08 GMT
In Article <32B95B83.1BC3@nts.ohn.hydro.on.ca>, Harold Asmis
 wrote:
>Another tiny snip (hopefully below the gaze of those Internet-destroying
>copyright lobbyists in Europe :)
>***
>Included in the least risky areas are most of the Central Valley.
>Sacramento has the least risk of destructive earthquakes of any big
>city in the state, and San Diego is well below the norm.
>-- 
The problem with the maps are frequently in the underlying assumptions. 
Earlier versions of these sorts of maps for the US has a bullseye of low
risk in central Idaho that was shortly thereafter filled by the Borah Peak
EQ in 1983.  Generally speaking, areas of high risk are not going to go down
with increasing research (with the possible exception of areas of very
infrequent EQs that have had an historic event, e.g., New Madrid,
Charleston), while areas of low risk *might* increase.
Many of these maps are based on a probabilistic approach using historic
seismicity.  Areas lacking historic seismicity are underrated.  Other maps
try to include geologic information to counter this problem (which was the
cause of the Borah Peak boo-boo), but then you run into problems with things
like blind thrusts that might not be recognized (and there *are* blind
thrusts in the western San Joaquin/Sacramento Valley, and I have no idea if
they have
been incorporated into the maps you are looking at).
Second part is to know what is being plotted.  Some maps are probabilistic
ground motion, basically the chance of seeing ground accelerations exceed a
certain amount over a fixed time; an area near Hollister that sees frequent
small earthquakes might get a very high number, while an area near the San
Andreas in southern CA might get a lower number though the risk of death and
property loss could be greater in the second place (rarer but much larger
EQs).  Some of these maps incorporate the surface geology, some do not. 
Given your description of the map, I doubt that this one does. 
Amplifications in an area like Sacramento can be expected to be large.  Even
when amplifications are included, odd seismic wave focusing is not included
as that depends on quite a number of variables.  Some other maps are
probabilities of a large earthquake occurring in a region, with no
indication of the extent of the area that would be affected.  There are some
other odd permutations.
The new state system was to spread the risk and apparently was inspired in
part by the recognition of insurance companies that their % insured against
EQ corresponded very well with the seismic risk (i.e., their customers paid
more attention to risk than they did--had they priced their policies with
respect to risk, the % insured would be about constant).  So I'd be
surprised to see seismic redlining from the state--I think that is contrary
to their intent.
Craig Jones                                    cjones@mantle.colorado.edu
      Research Associate, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder
WWW: http://cires.colorado.edu/people/jones.craig/CHJ_home.html
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Subject: Re: 1994 Northridge Earthquakes Hasn't Stopped, Hills Has Risen
From: cjones@mantle.colorado.edu (Craig Jones)
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 96 21:47:38 GMT
In Article <599av8$3bl@news.ysu.edu>, ap712@yfn.ysu.edu (Clay Morgan) wrote:
>
>In a previous article, baalke@kelvin.jpl.nasa.gov (Ron Baalke) says:
>
>>1994 NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE HASN'T STOPPED, HILLS HAVE RISEN
>
>
>
>>   "The Northridge quake occurred on a thrust fault that did not break all
>>the way to the surface. However, the sedimentary layers of rock, in the top
>>five kilometers located just below the surface near the epicenter, have
>>continued to move in a fluid- like manner -- sort of like honey flowing off
>>a spoon -- since the earthquake," said Dr. Gregory Lyzenga, a JPL
>>geophysicist and professor at Harvey Mudd College, Claremont, CA. "The
>>amount of motion that happened because of this 'stealth' earthquake is
>>equivalent to the displacement that would accompany a magnitude 6.0
>>earthquake."
>
>Is the motion that Dr. Lyzenga describes above the same thing as fault creep?
>If not, what is/are the difference(s)?
>
It could be, but it doesn't have to be on a single fault.  Inversion of
geodetic data for the geometry of deformation with depth is highly
non-unique, particularly if you remove a requirement that the slip occur on
a single fault.
Similar styles of creep have been documented in other earthquakes, though
this is a little unusual.
Craig Jones                                    cjones@mantle.colorado.edu
      Research Associate, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder
WWW: http://cires.colorado.edu/people/jones.craig/CHJ_home.html
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Subject: Re: Sacramento is Low!
From: Harold and Lise
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 1996 19:56:27 -0500
I put out that clip because I thought it was funny relating hazard and
insurance rates.  But the more I thought about it, I realized that it
was entirely rational to throw out all hazard maps for this.  If your
goal is just to spread out risk with a huge capital fund, then all you
do is make up a map with coverage $/km2.  For the big red zones (high
levels) you jack up the rates, and forget about the rest.  You can
assume that people know their own situation and cover accordingly. 
They're the ones who gamble, you don't have too.
Harold Asmis (at home)
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Subject: San Francisco Bay USGS Quake Map 12/12-18/96
From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 1996 01:04:17 GMT
Thu Dec 19 17:26:00 PST 1996
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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`
end
</PRE>
<A HREF=#TOP>Return to Top</A><HR>
<A NAME=6324><B><FONT COLOR=FF0000>Subject: World USGS Quake Map 12/12-18/96</FONT></B><BR><FONT COLOR=0000FF>From: michael@garlock.wr.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)</FONT><BR>Date: Fri, 20 Dec 1996 01:04:52 GMT<BR>
<PRE>
Thu Dec 19 17:26:01 PST 1996
The most recent version of this plot can be found
<a href="http://quake.usgs.gov/QUAKES/WEEKREPS/LATEST/world.gif"> here on the WWW</a>
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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`
end
</PRE>
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<HR>Downloaded by WWW Programs<BR>Byron Palmer