Newsgroup sci.geo.earthquakes 6493

Thu Jan 16 17:41:54 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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M#*_)SC;+<(:R[HRJ4LZ=V^#)H8Z,NC,]YQTW=WGG72E6^+.=RE;W JOJ\?C"DRM8,KO+KDZVUTJM&T;
M=]TXZ:D[UPC@AR,_J_)NE5URP!)K>ORJK*+K-]V%N,O]M),*CGW0V<\NH?7F
MLTY ?$Q=;G\8Y:357ISUYMU_,!1'LC1/-%57MG5?.)9GNK9O/-=WOO=_8% X
F)!:-1V12N60VG4]H5#JE5JU7;%:[Y7:]7W!8/":7S6=T&EH;  #MW
`
end

In article <32DE6B4D.7DE14518@cco-bitbucket.caltech.edu>, Stan
 wrote:
>Dennis Gentry wrote:
>> 
>> In article <5bjirg$nkm$1@mark.ucdavis.edu>, szdefons@boris.ucdavis.edu
>> (Eric DeFonso) wrote:
>> 
>> >I'll bet that the Loma Prieta quake occurred within 6 hours of a high
>> >tide. In fact, I'll bet that all earthquakes occur within about 6 or so
>> >hours of a high tide.
>> 
>> Is that with the high tide and the earthquake located within about
>> 75 kilometers of each other?
>
>Heh.  Since high tides occur about 12 hours apart, by definition
>any event anywhere will happen within six hours of a high tide.
>The point is that what sounds like an amazing correlation is
>really meaningless.  As Foghorn Leghorn might say, "It's a JOKE, son!"
Actually, Eric's response was sarcasm.
Hence my question to dampen the joke and to additionally eliminate
the thought that a high tide anywhere in the world could cause an
earthquake in another part of the world.  Though it would be
interesting if that were the case.
Dennis

Thu Jan 16 17:41:55 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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Subject: N. California USGS Quake Map 1/9-15/97
From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 17 Jan 1997 01:33:55 GMT

Thu Jan 16 17:41:54 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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M*LV1M-E'40Q1.E4)5.C0($NS:MW*M6/3K@'V74VQ^V+LMZYHTZI=R]9=6')F
MX[IL2[>NW;MX:[Q]8'533KFF\@H>3+BPT;T1Q_X%W,:PX\>0(_<2R[@O8PV2
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MY9589JGEEEQVZ>678(8IYIADEFDFEGSYT)P?,;2I$Y4/OBDGFQ/4B4=96-Q)
M5IQ[GL=GG'!VXN9;*_2GCYII%!G.!RHH>HV=A>KY)S[0)6JH$8S6,N>9_0PJ
MZ825?@ IG"PTRE*?AZ*'ZH,QTO IGI.F^N>IO0W:J*0CW0FCJOKHJ1^OOOB*
MYZ]2Z!IBH*$F:T6@G-8*Z:O!PKJ7L/ 0>^NJ^*C:7U#OH5H5MKG."FZUHS*(
M*Z7JE3L.>J4">^BIT!E+)Z CLMFNV6U&JZT;?"),<3D62_ I,*,\LLNUP(4"1C&C;&]I-)*K[,-$VIJ8Y%N*BO,9;S@G,\*YSGSP*HP
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MSOK8_T[=.FF_QUZ2U(O[.:OF$+U9&]6^PFN:>^K45V_]]=AGK_WVW'?O_??@
&AZ;]D 0 [
`
end

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Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast
From: kellyt@PEAK.ORG (Tim Kelly)
Date: 17 Jan 1997 07:02:29 GMT

Tim Kelly (kellyt@PEAK.ORG) wrote:
: To Those Interested:
: Dew point thought says that when the atmosphere is filling with charges 
: and very high tides occur, there is less atmosphere for the charge and a 
: greater chance of an EM earthquake to occur. This post relates more to 
: time than location. If one does occur along the West Coast, it will occur 
: within several hours of the high tide that follows a plus low tide. The 
: higher tides range in the 8 to 10 ft. range. FYI Both Northridge and Loma 
: Prieta occurred in the period when low tides were in the plus range. I'm 
: pretty sure high tide in the Bay Area was right about the time of the Loma 
: Prieta quake.
: Me parece que I'm not getting all the articles that are posted to the 
: thread as I get replies to articles that I don't recall seeing the 
: original post. (Me parece que = It seems to me that)
Would someone please post the high and low tide figures for 13 January at LA 
Harbor?
FYI: For a high tide to be in the 8-10 ft. range, the low tide should be 
in the +1.0 to +2.5 ft. range. That cycle usually occurs the week before 
the full moon: the period which we are now in. I try to encapsulate my 
thoughts and ideas in as few words as possible. Maybe I need to elaborate 
more.
Regards,
Tim
kellyt@peak.org

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Subject: Strong motion data
From: "Mohamed Ibrahim A. Matar" 
Date: Fri, 17 Jan 1997 10:47:26 +0200

Dear Sir:
Can any one help me find 
	1) Strong motion earthquake records for middle east and north 	africa.
Or guide me to strong motion data records that I can use 	in my master
as if it occured in EGYPT.
	2) Easrthquake simulation programs to simulate earthquake that 	occur
in EGYPT or sites with similar conditions
I would be very grateful if anyone can.
Please email me directly at any of the following addresses:
	elragi@frcu.eun.eg   (the best)
	mhkabil@cairo.eun.eg
	egypt_matar@hotmail.com
Thank you for your assistance

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Subject: Re: San Francisco earthquake predicted for 07-26-97
From: toad@joshuanet.com (Toad)
Date: Fri, 17 Jan 1997 00:45:24 -0800

In article <19970112222800.RAA06035@ladder01.news.aol.com>,
anthony042@aol.com (Anthony042) wrote:
:Right conclusion, wrong reason.  The San Andreas fault is not capable of a
:M=10.2 earthquake, and there may be _no_ fault anywhere on earth so
:capable.  However, if the prediction had said M=8.2, the fact that the
:rupture zone would be several hundred kilometers long would not prevent
:the actual epicenter from being in  (actually, near) San Francisco.  The
:epicenter is where the fault rupture starts. Of course, San Francisco is
:not the only city (or even the largest) which would be affected.  A M=8.2
:earthquake with epicenter sightly offshore San Francisco could affect
:cities and towns from Eureka to near San Bernardino, depending on the
:exact fault rupture.
Basically speaking, MUCH of northern and central California would be
affected by such a quake.  If it was a repeat of the 1906 quake, damage
would be extensive from Eureka to Monterey, and east towards the Central
Valley.
-- 
Toad
Stanislaus County
California
-
Unsolicited commercial Email delivered to this address will be
subject to a $1500 charge. Emailing such items, whether manually or
automatically, constitutes acceptance of these terms & conditions.

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Subject: Satellite Imagery FAQ - Pointer
From: satfaq@pobox.com (Nick Kew)
Date: 17 Jan 1997 13:25:25 GMT

Archive-name: sci/Satellite-Imagery-FAQ/Pointer
Satellite Imagery FAQ
=====================
Satellite Imagery for Earth Observation
   Last Modified: December 13th 1996:
   _The updates have been rather sporadic since September - sorry._
     * Removed apparently nonfunctional "Geoscience Journals" server;
       added some new references for journal information.
     * Chopped long and badly outdated contact list. Left in the
       reference to the original it was copied from.
     * Updated references for downloadable assessment software
       (Kappa/Entropy).
     * Various miscellaneous updates from the backlog, including Web
       references.
     * The Interactive FAQ software is now operational again at
       http://pobox.com/%7Esatfaq/ I'm looking to use it to
       'democratise' this document (i.e. encourage direct contributions
       which will automatically ingested), but my other FAQ - which is
       much shorter and simpler than this one - is leading the way in
       terms of contents.
NOTE: a server which was dead for several days appears to have killed
November's posting - sorry.   Also I've made some changes to the
posting scripts: apologies in advance if it screws up.
	============================================
The HTML version of this FAQ may be read at Web addresses, including:
http://www.geog.nott.ac.uk/remote/satfaq.html
http://atlas.esrin.esa.it:8000/lib/satfaq.html
and the "faqlib":
http://www.faqlib.com/
http://www.ba-karlsruhe.de/faqlib/
http://www.vol.it/mirror/faqlib/
It can also be retrieved by email from the SATFAQ autoresponder.
Send blank email to satfaq@pobox.com for details.
The plain text version is available:
  (1) on news.answers and other newsgroups (see below)
  (2) by anonymous ftp from rtfm.mit.edu and its mirror sites.
  (3) by email from the SATFAQ or RTFM autoresponders - see below.
The RTFM archive name is sci/Satellite-Imagery-FAQ, or it may be
found under the sci.* newsgroups listed below.  Note that, for
technical reasons, it is NOT archived under the group comp.infosystems.gis
To retrieve it from RTFM:
(1) By FTP:
        ftp rtfm.mit.edu
           cd /pub/usenet/news.answers/sci/Satellite-Imagery-FAQ
           get part1 (etc - up to part5)
(2) By email: send email to
          mail-server@rtfm.mit.edu
     with the following in the body of your message:
           send usenet/news.answers/sci/Satellite-Imagery-FAQ/part1
           (or part2, ..., part5)
The full document is posted to the following Usenet groups:
	comp.infosystems.gis
	sci.geo.meteorology
	sci.image.processing
	sci.geo.eos
	sci.answers
	news.answers
Posting to comp.infosystems.gis is as a single document, to ensure its
rejection by the GIS-L gateway and avoid flooding list subscribers mailboxes.
GIS-L subscribers should see this pointer, but not the FAQ itself!
Nick Kew
satfaq@pobox.com (autoresponder - send blank email for details)
disclaimer: I'm posting as a private individual - 
	    not representing my employer or Client.

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Subject: Re: San Francisco earthquake predicted for 07-26-97
From: texasai@aol.com
Date: 17 Jan 1997 11:01:30 GMT

In article <19970112222800.RAA06035@ladder01.news.aol.com>,
anthony042@aol.com (Anthony042) writes:
<>
I responded:
>
>-This is interesting. A magnutude 10.2? We at the Texas Aseismic 
>-Institute have been told that a magnitue 10 earthquake would require 
>-a fault a bit larger than could fit within the confines of the city of 
>-San Francisco, unless the city is much bigger than my map shows.
Anthony Argyriou took me seriously (often a mistake) and answered:
>
>Right conclusion, wrong reason.  The San Andreas fault is not capable of
a
>M=10.2 earthquake, and there may be _no_ fault anywhere on earth so
>capable.  However, if the prediction had said M=8.2, the fact that the
>rupture zone would be several hundred kilometers long would not prevent
>the actual epicenter from being in  (actually, near) San Francisco.  The
>epicenter is where the fault rupture starts. Of course, San Francisco is
>not the only city (or even the largest) which would be affected.  A M=8.2
>earthquake with epicenter sightly offshore San Francisco could affect
>cities and towns from Eureka to near San Bernardino, depending on the
>exact fault rupture.
Actually, I was really fishing for an estimate of just how large the fault
would have to be. The actual quote was about either a magnitude 10 
or magnitude 11 earhquake splitting the earth in two. Essentially, I 
believe he was refering to a required fault length equal to the 
circumference of the earth .(Remember the person told me this 20 
years ago and, although he lives and works a few miles down the 
street, I doubt he would remember if I asked him.)  
I would imagine that a magnitude 10 would at least require a fault 
length that could be expressed in earth radii as conveniently as 
kilometers.  Just just how long a fault would be required for a 
magnitude 10.2?
Of course, we are discussing this with a scientific bent at least 
up to the level of knowledge of a moderately interested layman.  
We have to look at the mindset of the people that make such 
predictions.  First of all, besides not having the knowledge of 
fault lengths' relationship to magnitude (which, alas, I am also 
lacking, at least quanititatively), I believe that such people often 
lack the magnitudes scale's relationship to energy relesed.
Probably many think it is linear. Also I often see magnitude
confused with intensity. 
Picture the following scenario:
Within a few weeks of the predicted event a smaller 
earthquake occurs in or around San Francisco. In certain
areas, the Modified-Mercalli Intensity reaches X or XI.
There you have it. The prediction was correct if you leave out
the minor detail of the original prediction quoting magnitude,
not intensity.
Several years ago, reporters used to mention the "ten point 
Richter Scale."  Now it's the "open-ended Richter Scale". This
I can see leading to "psychic prediction inflation" ---
Psychic 1: "I predict a magnitude 10.2 earthquake in San Francisco."
Psychic 2: "That's nothing compared to the magnitude 13 LA will
experience a year later. But that will only be a foreshock to the
magnitude 26 that will occur 6 months later...."
Let me end with the following public service announcement:
A brick falling off a ten story bulding is just as deadly whether it 
was shaken loose by a magnitude 5.0 earthquake or an 8.0 one.
The preceeding was brought to you by the Texas Aseismic 
Institute. We tell you where earthquakes are not going to 
happen before they don't.
Jim Loftus, Director
JimFL@aol.com

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Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense? yes, it is)
From: LincMad@Eureka.vip.best.NOSPAM (Linc Madison)
Date: Fri, 17 Jan 1997 03:01:03 -0800

In article ,
gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry) wrote:
>In article ,
>LincMad@Eureka.vip.best.NOSPAM (Linc Madison) wrote:
>
>>In article , gentryd@pipeline.com
>>(Dennis Gentry) wrote:
>>
>>My point is that Tim's hypothesis contradicts current DATA.  I am not
>>concerned that his hypothesis contradicts current thinking, only that
>>it does so without any foundation whatsoever.  To test a hypothesis,
>>you see what predictions it leads to and then see if those predictions
>>are correct.  Tim's hypothesis predicts earthquakes which do not happen.
>>Therefore, Tim's hypothesis is incorrect.  End of discussion.
>
>Have you gone out and done the research on the data to support your
>statement that Tims' hypothesis predicts earthquakes that don't
>happen?  If not, then how do you know that they don't happen?
Name one single magnitude 3.5 earthquake that has occurred in the
eastern half of the state of Texas in the last 20 years.  That's
how I know they don't happen.  However, that region meets the criteria
that under Tim's hypothesis should lead to MASSIVE earthquakes.  There
are often periods of WEEKS when the dew point is never reached.
>Isn't one of the purposes of this newsgroup is to discuss earthquake
>prediction technology?  Instead all I ever see out here is people
>trying to discount a posted hypothesis without trying to assist in
>finding plausible alternatives to some of the rough spots in the
>hypothesis.
Okay, here is a plausible alternative to some of the rough spots in
Tim's hypothesis.  The existing theories of dew formation are not in
need of being thrown out and completely replaced.  Earthquakes are
caused by the actions of faults and other geological formations
without regard to the weather.
As it happens, Tim's hypothesis in its current form is clearly wrong.
My confidence is very low that any minor modification of that hypothesis
will bear fruit.  On each point where Tim asks us to make a complete
break from existing theory, I believe that the existing theory offers
a more plausible explanation of observed events.
I'm all in favor of new inquiry, but you'd better have a better reason
than "wouldn't it be neat if" before you ask people to junk theories
that have been thoroughly tested.  In short, when I see a theory that
has more substance than "rough spots," I'll be eager to help work out
the details.  However, when I see a "theory" that is nothing *but*
"rough spots," I see no reason to try to smooth it.
-- 
** Any unsolicited commercial e-mail will be subject to a $1500 **
** processing charge.  Sending e-mail to this address, whether  **
** automatically or manually, signifies consent to these terms. **
Linc Madison  *  San Francisco, CA  * LincMad@Eureka.vip.best. com
>>  NOTE: if you autoreply, you must change "NOSPAM" to "com".  <<

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Subject: Re: Texas Aseismic Institute Announcement
From: texasai@aol.com
Date: 17 Jan 1997 11:29:50 GMT

In article , e_rmwm@va.nmh.ac.uk
 (Roger Musson) writes:
>
>I thought that the use of negatively-charged krypton vortices was
essentially
>
>a technique for the prediction of non-earthquakes.
Essentially, yes, but after you use the negatively-charged krypton
vortices
to identify the non-earthquake areas, you must assume the other areas have
a possibility of earthquakes. This is a relatively new version of the old
technique. We call it the Negative Krypton Vortex Profiling method or
NKVP for short. Of course, NKVP is more expensive since it
requires an array of portable detectors versus the static station
method.
 Not enough is said about 
>this subject; predicting non-earthquakes is much easier than predicting 
>earthquakes. There is so much else you can do with non-earthquake 
>investigations, as well. 
Precisely why I founded the Texas Aseismic Institute.
Consider the following extreme version of Tim
>Kelly's 
>hypothesis:
>
>      "All earthquakes are caused by dew"
>
>From this it follows:
>
>     "All things not caused by dew are non-earthquakes"
>
>We start collecting data. I have here a coffee mug. Is it caused by dew?
No. 
>Is it a non-earthquake? Yes! The datum confirms the hypothesis!
>
>Try it yourself.
>
>
>
>Roger Musson
>r.musson@bgs.ac.uk 
>
>
I am truly impressed. Would you like a job here at TAI?
Jim Loftus
Director, Texas Aseismic Institute
TEXAI@aol.com

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Subject: Software Seismic Hazard
From: Harold Asmis 
Date: Fri, 17 Jan 1997 08:58:01 -0500

The hazards of being software during an earthquake.
******
VAN NUYS -- The former president and vice president of a large computer
software company were indicted Thursday on federal mail fraud charges
that accuse them of ordering employees to trample, stomp on and bend
stock after the Northridge earthquake in an attempt to swindle an
insurance company out of $5 million.
-- 
Harold W. Asmis        harold.w.asmis@hydro.on.ca
tel 416.592.7379  fax 416.592.5322
Standard Disclaimers Apply

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Subject: geological-mailing lists and www geo-sites?
From: pullch@mbox.vol.it (Francesco Coppola)
Date: Fri, 17 Jan 1997 15:57:09 GMT

Hello everybody
is here someone who can help me?
I'm a student of geology in the university of Milan (italy) and I'm
searching for some geological www-sites and mailing lists.
Please send information at
Francesco Coppola 
Sorry by my bad bad english, I'm Italian.
bye
Francesco

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Subject: Re: Texas Aseismic Institute Announcement
From: kellyt@PEAK.ORG (Tim Kelly)
Date: 17 Jan 1997 19:53:38 GMT

[clip]
: Precisely why I founded the Texas Aseismic Institute.
: Jim Loftus
: Director, Texas Aseismic Institute
: TEXAI@aol.com
Hey Linc:
I just had a revelation about why East Texas has no quakes. It's because 
of the Texas Aseismic Institute.  If the name was changed to Texas Seismic 
Institute then there would be EM type EQs in East Texas :-). Man, now 
that that problem's been solved, everybody can put their trust in the 
theo .., ahem hypothe .., that whatchamacallit thingy.
Regards,
Tim
kellyt@peak.org

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