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Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense? yes, it is) -- From: David Nobes
Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast -- From: Stan
Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense? probably.) -- From: kellyt@PEAK.ORG (Tim Kelly)
Subject: Re: Oregon -- From: phm@eqe.com
Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast -- From: gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry)
Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense - not entirely) -- From: gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry)
Subject: N. California USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97 -- From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast -- From: tar@ISI.EDU (Thomas A. Russ)
Subject: USA USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97 -- From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Subject: Long Valley USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97 -- From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Subject: San Francisco Bay USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97 -- From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Subject: World USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97 -- From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)

Articles

Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense? yes, it is)
From: David Nobes
Date: 23 Jan 1997 23:19:34 GMT
Lucy Jones  wrote:
>But some theoreticians are now saying that what stops an earthquake 
>rupture (and thus controls the size of the event) may not be connected 
>to what starts it. It that turns out to be true, any precursor will be 
>independent of magnitude and thus useless for the type of earthquake 
>prediction the public wants.
>
>Lucy Jones
>U. S. Geological Survey		
Lucy:
This sounds interesting. I haven't noted this previously. Can you
supply any references? There are a few of us here in NZ who would
be interested.
Thanks muchly.
David Nobes
Geological Sciences
U of Canterbury
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Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast
From: Stan
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 1997 15:26:28 -0800
timberwoof wrote:
> 
> one facing the moon and the other on the other side. (At half moons
> the lobes flatten out an we get wimpy tides. [What's the nautical
> term?])
Neap tides.
--
----------*Note munged address. Remove "-bitbucket" to reply.*---------
Stan Schwarz         |     "I just want to live like Yogi Bear
stan@cco.caltech.edu |        He kicks ass on the average bear."
-------------------------------------------- -Stukas Over Bedrock -----
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Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense? probably.)
From: kellyt@PEAK.ORG (Tim Kelly)
Date: 24 Jan 1997 02:24:29 GMT
[major clip]
: >However, using current theories of the examples given above, and prior
: >data, it is possible to make broad, statistical, predictions of these
: >events.  A traffic engineer can look at prior accident and traffic data
: >and predict how many accidents will occur in a particular stretch of road
: >over the next year.  Don't ask him exactly when they will occur.  We can
: >predict "average" rainfall for a year, but not whether it will rain on
: >March 1.  Etc.
: >
: >If the dew-point theory can tell us, in advance, some condition which will
: >correlate with increased earthquake activity, we can check in 1998 and see
: >if the correlation holds up.  The original posting did not provide enough
: >information to evaluate this.  If the author wants us to test his theory,
: >he must provide a list of measurable indicators which can be checked.  Due
: >to the limitations of this field, the indicator should be something which
: >can be checked after an earthquake, from readily obtainable data.  Then
: >this data should be compiled and correlated with earthquake occurence
: >data.  
: >
: >If any of the four correlations above are observed, then cause and effect
: >need to be investigated.  Perhaps the correlation is there because high
: >rock stress conditions create electrical fields which change dew patterns.
: > If this is the case, then dew conditions are only of predictive value if
: >the "trigger" conditions _only_ occur prior to earthquakes.
: >
: >The burden of proof is on the proposer, so the original author should step
: >forward with conditions which the rest of us can check, if we are so
: >inclined.
Anthony, Dennis and Others:
The materials are already in place to verify what I've been saying. Go to 
a library that has the LA Times on microfiche. Find the yearbooks for the 
microfiche. Look up earthquakes. There will be a list of large 
earthquakes and the day they occurred. Look at the Weather Section for 
the three days prior to the earthquakes. The epicentral location will 
have overnight low temperatures above 56 degrees Fahrenheit. 56 Degrees 
Fahrenheit is the ballpark temperature where dew forms in Southern Cal. 
Dew point can become frost point in the temps drop low enough. In either 
situation when it's no dew that is the key. The data is there. I don't 
have to tweak the numbers. Check it out if your interested.
It doesn't only work in Southern Cal. It works anywhere on the planet.
Regards,
Tim
kellyt@peak.org
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Subject: Re: Oregon
From: phm@eqe.com
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 1997 21:31:33 -0600
In article <5c011h$kid@nntp.Stanford.EDU>,
  rick@oas.Stanford.EDU (Richard Ottolini) wrote:
(excerpt follows)
> I doubt if an "expert" said Oregon was "due" for a quake.
> However it appears that states on the NW US subduction zone-
> Washington, Oregon, and northern California- are susceptable
> to quakes up to Richter M9 (larger than central-south CA).
> Paleoseimology shows approximately three large quakes in the
> area in the past 2000 years with the last one occuring 
> about 300-350 years ago.
> 
Actually, at 9 pm on January 26th, Oregonians, et al. can celebrate the 297th 
anniversary of the most recent great Cascadia earthquake (time and date are 
local). 
K. Satake has analyzed the origin times of historical tsunamis based on wave 
amplitudes in Japan and Pacific Basin propagation models. This one in the year 
1700 A.D. cannot otherwise be explained except by a Cascadia earthquake of 
moment magnitude 8.9 with 9 meters of slip -- with tsunami heights along the 
Pacific Northwest coast of 5 to 8 meters (~16 to 26 feet), on average.
(See Satake's Dec. 1996 AGU abstract at 
http://earth.agu.org:80/cgi-bin/waisgate?WAISconnType=&WAISdocID;=6710722911+0+0+
0&WAISaction;=retrieve)
Happy Anniversary.
(Standard disclaimers apply.)
-------------------==== Posted via Deja News ====-----------------------
      http://www.dejanews.com/     Search, Read, Post to Usenet
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Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast
From: gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry)
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 1997 21:44:11 -0300
In article , tar@isi.edu wrote:
>In article <...> gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry) writes:
> > In article <...>, tar@isi.edu wrote:
> >>OK.  Plausible alternative:  Tectonic plate theory without the
> >>EM-earthquakes is a plausible alternative to the Dew Point Theory.
> > 
> > Actually I was talking about the rough spots of the dew point
> > theory.  Not the existing theory.  We all already know about the
> > plausibility of the tectonic plate theory.
>
>Actually, I believe that the Dew Point hypothesis is fatally flawed.
>Asking for help with the rough spots is akin to asking for suggestions
>for improving the geo-centric theory of planetary motion.  Some
>hypotheses are incorrect and really just need to be rejected.
>
> >  But is that the "only"
> > trigger or reason for quakes?  I don't think so.
>
>Feel free to advance another theory.  You would be better off starting
>with something new.
I have and so far nobody seems to have denied the possibility.
But that is all it is.  A possibility.  Next step is to prove it.
In my opinion, I believe that what Tim experienced that started
his research was due to an increased magnetic field being generated by
a quake that's close to its breaking point.  As water is a diamagnetic
substance which is repelled by a magnetic field, it follows that the
areas with a high enough increased magnetic field would be dry.
Also it would have an affect on the weather.
I'd also heard of an experiment by the University of Tokyo where
they had put some water in a pan (don't remember how deep it was
exactly - maybe 10 centimeters) and applied a magnetic field to
the center of this pan.  With a magnetic field of about 10 Tesla
they were able to part the water down to the bottom of the pan.
Sure the earths normal magnetic field is only about .00005 Tesla,
but who knows how high it can get.  But then again, it isn't known
if it preceeds all quakes or only a subset of quakes in certain
areas.
Regards,
Dennis
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Subject: Re: Dew Point Theory Paper (nonsense - not entirely)
From: gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry)
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 1997 21:42:46 -0300
In article , e_rmwm@va.nmh.ac.uk (Roger
Musson) wrote:
>Generally speaking, the more a hypothesis has to be continually patched up, at 
>great strain to the imagination, with every new objection, the more the 
>scientist is inclined to say, "this is a bad hypothesis; it is not worth 
>pursuing". To give a real example, when the phlogiston hypothesis of 
>combustion got to the state of requiring that phlogiston had negative mass, 
>scientists decided it just wasn't worth pursuing any longer. The hypothesis 
>was discarded rather than disproved. This is the way science progresses.
>
>When presented with a new hypothesis, from whatever source, a scientist has to 
>make a judgement call as to whether it deserves attention. If it has such huge 
>holes in it that it requires major surgery before it even leaves the starting 
>box, the judgement call will be that this hypothesis is simply a waste of 
>time. Consequently, "Dew point theory" is fated to be ignored by 99% of 
>working seismologists; not many will begrudge the time even to argue the case.
Well, thank you for the time that you have spent.
Just a few thoughts on the above though.
With each new hypothesis, some pieces of a hypothesis may not be
possible based on currently known laws, etc.  Because of this, a large
flurry of objections would be voiced.  Then, depending on the
backbone of the originator and depending on how much time that person
wanted to spend on seeing it thru, it may get dropped all together.
And if that hypothesis was true, then we all lose out.
Another viewpoint would be that some pieces of a rejected hypothesis
put together with other pieces of other hypothesis could be the key
to new doors.  Hopefully, some people do keep some of the points of
various rejected hypothesis for further research.
Your points are well taken though.
Regards,
Dennis
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Subject: N. California USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97
From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 02:00:42 GMT
Thu Jan 23 18:08:52 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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`
end
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Subject: Re: Tidal Influence Time - West Coast
From: tar@ISI.EDU (Thomas A. Russ)
Date: 23 Jan 1997 16:40:30 -0800
In article <...> gentryd@pipeline.com (Dennis Gentry) writes:
 > In article <...>, tar@isi.edu wrote:
 >>OK.  Plausible alternative:  Tectonic plate theory without the
 >>EM-earthquakes is a plausible alternative to the Dew Point Theory.
 > 
 > Actually I was talking about the rough spots of the dew point
 > theory.  Not the existing theory.  We all already know about the
 > plausibility of the tectonic plate theory.
Actually, I believe that the Dew Point hypothesis is fatally flawed.
Asking for help with the rough spots is akin to asking for suggestions
for improving the geo-centric theory of planetary motion.  Some
hypotheses are incorrect and really just need to be rejected.
 >  But is that the "only"
 > trigger or reason for quakes?  I don't think so.
Feel free to advance another theory.  You would be better off starting
with something new.
-- 
Thomas A. Russ,  USC/Information Sciences Institute          tar@isi.edu    
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Subject: USA USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97
From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 02:00:57 GMT
Thu Jan 23 18:08:53 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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`
end
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Subject: Long Valley USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97
From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 02:00:50 GMT
Thu Jan 23 18:08:52 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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Return to Top
Subject: San Francisco Bay USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97
From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 02:00:33 GMT
Thu Jan 23 18:08:52 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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Subject: World USGS Quake Map 1/16-22/97
From: michael@andreas.usgs.gov (Andy Michael)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 02:01:06 GMT
Thu Jan 23 18:08:53 PST 1997
The most recent version of this plot can be found
 here on the WWW
This map is associated with the USGS weekly seismicity report for
Northern California, the US, and the World.  Disclaimers in that report
apply to this map.  The format is GIF (GIF 87a, I believe) converted to
ascii by uuencode.  For more info contact michael@andreas.wr.usgs.gov.
DO NOT SEND EMAIL TO weekly@garlock.wr.usgs.gov  It will not be read.
UUENCODED FILE BEGINS BELOW THIS LINE
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end
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Byron Palmer