Subject: Re: Global Warming: Effect on Sea Level
From: Joe Schumacher
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 1996 09:09:30 -0500
On 12 Nov 1996, Andy & Sophie Smout wrote:
> Greetings!
>
> I am interested in any information on the predicted change in sea-level as
> a consequence of global warming. Does anyone know what the current climatic
> models say? I think I have heard numbers up to 10 metres quoted, but don't
> know the source of this information and whether it is in any sense recent
> or reliable. Also, I would be interested to know wheter any rise in sea
> level would be the same over the whole surface of the earth, or would be
> greater near the equator.
>
> Does anyone know the current state of the art? Specifically, I would like
> to move to the seaside in Scotland, but don't want to buy a house that will
> be underwater after 25 years or so... :-)
>
> Andy Smout
>
The U.S. Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO) hosts the
on-line version of "The Probability of Sea Level Rise" by James G. Titus
and Vijay K. Narayanan, a 1995 publication. The report is located at
http://www.gcrio.org/EPA/sealevel/seatitle.html
The hard copy of the report can be obtained from the EPA by contacting the
National Center for Environmental Publications and Information (NCEPI), PO
Box 42419, Cincinnati OH 45242 USA. NCEPI also can be reached at
1-513-489-8190 (phone), and 1-513-489-8695 (fax).
In addition, the Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report contains a
chapter on the effects of climate change on coastal zones and small
islands. The report is available from Cambridge University Press.
Executive Summaries of the WG II report are available on-line at
http://www.unep.ch/ipcc/ipcc95.html
Hard copies of the Executive Summary are available from the GCRIO
and can be ordered free using our Document Request Form
http://www.gcrio.org/OnLnDoc/docreq-form.html
Hope this helps.
Joe Schumacher
U.S. Global Change Research Information Office
2250 Pierce Rd.
University Center MI 48710
PH: 517-797-2730
FX: 517-797-2622
http://www.gcrio.org
Subject: Re: Global Warming: Effect on Sea Level
From: Robert Evans
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 1996 08:19:24 -0600
Andy & Sophie Smout wrote:
>
> Greetings!
>
> I am interested in any information on the predicted change in sea-level as
> a consequence of global warming. Does anyone know what the current climatic
> models say? I think I have heard numbers up to 10 metres quoted, but don't
> know the source of this information and whether it is in any sense recent
> or reliable. Also, I would be interested to know wheter any rise in sea
> level would be the same over the whole surface of the earth, or would be
> greater near the equator.
>
> Does anyone know the current state of the art? Specifically, I would like
> to move to the seaside in Scotland, but don't want to buy a house that will
> be underwater after 25 years or so... :-)
>
> Andy Smout
Andy & Sophie,
The state of the models is not very good. The modelers will tell you that.
If you move to the seaside, just make sure you are at a proper elevation
and distance from the shore to avoid storm surge from any major storm.
Maybe in 10-20 years the models will have most of the physics in them and
the computers will be powerful enough to model the atmosphere. IMHO, we are
not there yet.
Bob Evans
--
______________________________________
all opinions expressed are mine and
mine alone.
______________________________________
Subject: Looking for magazine article
From: tlosborne@aol.com
Date: 13 Nov 1996 17:11:49 GMT
I'd like to get/read the following paper:
Bonner, W.D, 1968: "Climatology of the low level jet." Monthly Weather
Review, v96, pp833-850.
Does anyone know if it is archived anywhere on the net, or what library
in the Boston, MA to Manchester, NH area might have it?
Thanks for your help.
Tom Osborne
TLOsborne@aol.com
Subject: Looking for magazine article
From: tlosborne@aol.com
Date: 13 Nov 1996 17:11:49 GMT
I'd like to get/read the following paper:
Bonner, W.D, 1968: "Climatology of the low level jet." Monthly Weather
Review, v96, pp833-850.
Does anyone know if it is archived anywhere on the net, or what library
in the Boston, MA to Manchester, NH area might have it?
Thanks for your help.
Tom Osborne
TLOsborne@aol.com
Subject: Re: Evidence for Wind Chill?
From: J French
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 1996 13:38:25 -0700
Dayton Meyer wrote:
>
> Greetings,
>
> I'm tired of hearing my brother insist that wind chill is purely
> fictional. I disagree completely.
>
> Could somebody please explain the truth?
>
> He sent me the following arguement, which has been edited for clarity.
> ----------------------------------
> >There is no such thing. There is a wind chill "index," but the temperature is just the temperature... If the temperature is 10 degrees and the wind chill index is minus 20, the temperature is still only 10 degrees. The windchill index indicates what the heat loss would be if a warm object were exposed to the combination of temperature and wind.
>
> >If Morgan were to stand outside in the full wind with much exposed skin and the temperature was 10 degrees above zero and the windchill was 20 degrees below zero... his body would cool at the same *RATE* (speed) as if the actual temperature was 20 degrees below zero with no wind at all. BUT, his body would still only reach 10 degrees above zero, no matter what (as long as the actual temperature stayed at 10 above.)
>
> >Now... if you took Backlash and encased him in a block of foam insulation and stood him right next to Morg his body temp would also reach 10 degrees above, only much, much later, because the rate (or speed) of heat loss was much, much slower, due to the insulation.
>
> >They'd both end up in the same place (given enought time,) and their body temps would both only go as low as 10 degrees above, cause that *IS* the temperature.
> ----------------------------------
> Thanks for your time
>
Listen to your brother, he speaks the truth!
J French
University of Wyoming
Subject: Re: Looking for magazine article
From: Weather Scratch
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 1996 22:21:55 -0800
tlosborne@aol.com wrote:
>
> I'd like to get/read the following paper:
>
> Bonner, W.D, 1968: "Climatology of the low level jet." Monthly Weather
> Review, v96, pp833-850.
>
> Does anyone know if it is archived anywhere on the net, or what library
> in the Boston, MA to Manchester, NH area might have it?
>
> Thanks for your help.
> Tom Osborne
> TLOsborne@aol.com
Tom: I can probably get this for you. John
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Subject: Absolute Humidity data.
From: Gregg Horan
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 1996 12:56:49 -0500
Does anyone know of any good sources of absolute humidity data
for various international cities? I'm most interestd in finding
the most humid conditions (absolute) around. So far all I've
been able to determine is average humidity at 2:00pm or something
like that. If there was either peak daily absolute humidity for
preferably middle eastern countries (UAE, S.A., Egypt).
So far the worst I can find was Dubaii which on a particularly
warm spell can see 85% RH at 125degF. You know, I start to get
uncomfotable when that dew point creeps up above 118F.
I have unreliable access, so if you have any leads, could you
reply directly.
Thanks.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~ Gregg P. Horan ~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~ horangr@hsd.utc.com ~~~~~~~
~~ hora2999@hgc.edu ~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Subject: an "essay" (short) (fwd)
From: "Gilbert L. Sebenste"
Date: Thu, 14 Nov 1996 07:02:05 -0600
Hello meteorologists and weather enthusiasts,
I have been asked by Mr. Charles A. Doswell III to post this message. The
following represents his opinions and the message is posted without any
alterations.
Gilbert
*******************************************************************************
Gilbert Sebenste ********
Internet: sebenste@geog.niu.edu (My opinions only!) *****
Owner of the Storm Chaser Homepage/SCH Canada ***
URL: http://taiga.geog.niu.edu/chaser/chaser.html **
SCH Canada URL: http://taiga.geog.niu.edu/chaser/canada *
THE STORM MACHINE: http://taiga.geog.niu.edu/chaser/machine/ *
Never rage against THE STORM MACHINE! *
*******************************************************************************
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Wed, 13 Nov 1996 13:27:15 -0600
From: Chuck Doswell
To: "Gilbert L. Sebenste"
Subject: an "essay" (short)
Gilbert,
The following is what I would like for you to post to Wx-Chase, Wx-Talk,
and sci.geo.meteorology for me.
===============================separator============================
NWS Management and the Expression of Opinions on the Internet
Recents events have brought to my attention the fact that NWS management
has decreed that NWS employees cannot express their opinions over the
Internet using government resources. This has led to the removal of
certain controversial Web page discussions and has even spread to other
NOAA agencies in the sense that it is not deemed appropriate to take a
public stance on this issue using NOAA facilities. In effect, the system
says that NWS employees (and even those of other NOAA agencies if the topic
involves the NWS) must use private resources to express their opinions.
On the surface, this has an aura of reasonableness to it. After all, most
folks have to go to a private ISP to express themselves and the stodgy old
government has to keep up an aura of stodginess, colorlessness, and
exaggerated decorum. If an NWS employee wants to express an opinion about
stock exchange investments, tulip bulb selections, ski vacation spots, or
(horrors!) politics, then it makes perfectly good sense to ask that person
to use a private ISP for conducting that sort of business and to not use
federally-funded resources. However, discussing issues related to
FORECASTING and METEOROLOGY seems rather more like a proper part of a
forecaster's job than an abuse of the public trust. Preventing discussions
in an open forum and keeping them confined within the NWS is a way to
maintain the disconnect between NWS forecasters and the rest of the
meteorological community. Moreover, it seems to me that what constitutes
an opinion is a matter of opinion! It seems to me that the NWS decree
amounts to a means of suppressing free discourse on issues.
Further, if the tone of the Internet communication were that of a hymn of
praise for the NWS in all aspects, I am absolutely confident that no one in
NWS management would be ruffled in the least. I submit that the Web
contains many items that are matters of opinion right now, many of which
are sanctioned by the system. The notion that opinions cannot be expressed
on the Internet using federal resources actually is a fiction ... it only
applies to content that contains contoversy and/or explicit or even
implicit criticism. It seems that NWS employees cannot express any
criticism or take controversial stands regarding issues that they confront
on the job.
So what's WRONG with forbidding the expression of negative or controversial
viewpoints? Why air our dirty laundry in a public forum like the Internet?
Does the fable about the Emperor's New Clothes spring to mind? It
certainly enters mine ... suppression of negative viewpoints is a tactic
ill-matched to the government of a democracy. If pressed, I suspect no one
in NWS management would admit to believing that the current situation is
"the best of all possible worlds" or even close to it. So why do they seek
to suppress discourse on controversial topics? I suspect fear is at the
heart of the problem. The folks in NWS management promulgating this decree
are not evil people, they are simply fearful. Their fear is that admitting
that this is NOT the best of all possible worlds will lead to litigation,
Congressional investigations, etc. and further reductions of funding. I
can't ignore the very real risk of political stupidity and/or frivolous
litigation ... no one will ever go broke betting on politicians and lawyers
doing stupid, shortsighted things.
But muzzling discourse when opinions are involved ... which is virtually
ALL the time ... seems like the response of a Dilbert cartoon-like
management caricature. I believe that suppression of NWS employee opinion
via the Internet is WRONG. It underscores the aura of fear that pervades
our government and society. We are having trouble fixing our problems
precisely BECAUSE we are afraid of having a proper discourse ... fear of
litigation, fear of hurting one's personal career, fear of political
revenge, etc. I submit that we will not cure the problems that confront
the NWS (or NOAA), much less those of the country as a whole, if we
suppress discourse, PARTICULARLY when that discourse is controversial.
Chuck Doswell
Employer not named at their request,
Employer's resources not used at their request
===============================separator============================
Regards ... Chuck
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr. Charles A. Doswell III NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle, Norman, Oklahoma 73069
phone: (405) 366-0439 fax: (405) 366-0472
WWW home page:
Standard disclaimer ... my views are my own, so don't blame my employer.
In politics, we put aside emotion;
We deal with facts. ...Hassan Abdul-Rakhman
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Subject: Re: State College Low Temp (was Re: God...online)
From: scottl@ssec.wisc.edu (Scott Lindstrom)
Date: 14 Nov 1996 14:31:32 GMT
In article <56eckj$2j7u@r02n01.cac.psu.edu>, demark@psu.edu (Tony Demark) writes:
|> > emb146@psu.edu (Evan Bookbinder) wrote:
|> >Well...I guess that shows that this man is indeed God....I guess we're
|> >going to have a VERY cold next march...seeing -25C is well below
|> >anything I can remember here.
|>
|> Not too long ago, we had a cold spell (think it was Jan or Feb '94)
|> where the official low ended up being -18 F. Several of us recorded
|> -22 and -23 F lows. Now, lets do a little conversion -25C is -13F.
|> -18F is somewhere around -27-28C. So, these lows have occured several
|> times in the last 10 years... although not normal, definately not out
|> of the ordinary.
|>
|> - Tony
I believe the original poster was talking about March, however, and I do not
recall it being that cold there in March, although I confess my knowledge of
State College climo is not what is used to be.
I would also claim that -25C is certainly out of the ordinary in SC. It's
happened, what, 10, 15 times in 90+ years?
Scott, SC native (can you tell :) ? )
--
Scott S. Lindstrom | The only other sound's
scottl@ssec.wisc.edu | the sweep of easy
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~scottl/homepage1.html | wind and downy flake